US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on a new round of imported goods will finally be revealed tomorrow morning, Australian time.

The threat of tariffs under the ‘America First Trade Policy’ on Australian beef imports (as well as those from other suppliers, like Brazil) have unsettled the global red meat trade since early March.

Many involved the trade see tomorrow’s announcements – whatever they may hold – as at least providing some certainty that importers and exporters can factor-in to their pricing equations.

In a statement published at the bottom of this article, Australia’s Red Meat Advisory Council has called for calm in response to heightened speculation about possible US tariffs on all imports.

Just some of the many ‘known unknowns’ surrounding tomorrow’s US tariff announcements include:

• Will there be any tariff on Australian beef and sheepmeat at all?
• If so, how much? Will Australia’s GST be a factor?
• If so, will it be activated immediately, or with a considerable lag (for comparison, tariffs on Australian aluminium announced earlier may not be activated for six to nine months. Different forms of legislation in the US government have different enactment periods).
• If so, will chilled and frozen Australian beef carry the same level of tariff?
• What tariff (if any) is applied on competing US suppliers like Brazil?
• What happens to product already on the water? (typical sea-freight times are 3-4 weeks to the US, depending on port of entry).

More will be known on these and other factors in the tariff saga around 7am tomorrow morning, AEST (6am Brisbane time), when the new tariff regime is due to be announced.

US beef importers go into hibernation

Uncertainty surrounding the extent and impact of tariffs on meat imports has seen US beef importers go into hibernation for the past three or four weeks, with nobody wanting to get caught with product that might ultimately carry an extra tariff burden.

Trade volumes and inquiry out of the US has trended sharply down since the middle of March.

“It’s almost like the market is at a standstill,” one large export beef trader told Beef Central this morning.

“We’re not particularly worried about the specific tariff itself,” he said. “The market can deal with any tariff that might be applied – provided its not too high – but its the current uncertainty and just ‘not knowing’ that’s damaging the trade,” he said.

“What we are worried about is sales we have on our books, but not yet consigned. There’s a school of thought that product shipped on board (bill of lading date = the date the carrier issues the bill of lading, acknowledging receipt of goods for shipment and serving as a receipt, contract, and title document for the goods) would be exempt from any tariff. But there’s no guarantee, as a lot of that detail goes out the window with Trump’s behaviour.”

Australian exporters that may have previously had US sales forward-sold for eight weeks, might now be only forward-sold for four weeks, due to the lack of recent activity, he said. “Their forward-sold window is just being eroded,” he said.

So having been out of the market for so long, does that suggest a US buying frenzy for Australian beef, once the tariff measures are announced tomorrow?

Reference below in this article point to rapidly eroding US cold storage stocks of beef and all proteins.

“Hard to know, but it’s possible,” another trusted trade source said, guardedly.

He offered a number of scenarios in coming days:

• The best case would be confirmation of no tariffs at all on Australian beef.
• The worst case would be ‘no decision’ on Australian beef, leaving the trade in limbo for another 30 days (or more).
• Somewhere in the middle would be a new tariff on Australian beef – say 2pc on frozen trimmings to accommodate the US’s desperate need for that product at present – and 8pc tariff on everything else.

Currently, products like flanks and inside skirts that predominantly go the the US for items like fajita meat and lean trimmings, have been very quiet, the trader said. But for fattier 85CL trimmings that can go to multiple export markets, or used within Australia, trading was happening normally, he said.

Another demand factor linked to the tariff issue would be any additional tariff imposed by the US on Brazilian beef. Brazil already pays a 26.5pc tariff into the US, having triggered its quota allowance back in January. If Brazil cops another 15-20pc tariff under tomorrow’s Trump announcements, it would make Brazilian beef prohibitive in the US market, one trade source said.

“Under that scenario, Brazil would likely ship all of that beef previously destined for the US into China, at lower price levels,” he said.

“So comparative tariffs between exporters to the US are going to be just as important as the tariff levels themselves.”

Australian export shipments (preliminary figures only) to US East and West Coast ports during March have reached 32,200t, down 8.2pc on the previous month – but significantly, much of that was consigned in the first half of the month, before tariff concerns really started to kick-in. Barring the tariff impact, trade last month could have easily exceeded 40,000t, one trader said.

US meat inventories at 15-year lows

The result of recent slow export trade into the US, in combination with rapidly declining US domestic beef production as the country battles a major cattle deficit caused by earlier drought, has been dwindling inventories of beef and other proteins in US cold storage.

As at the end of February, the total supply of the four major meat proteins (beef, pork, chicken and turkey – see graph below) in US cold storage was 880,000t, the lowest inventory level seen since 2010, signalling potential supply constraints heading into northern hemisphere spring. Only three other times in the past 25 years have February cold storage stocks been this low.

February typically sees a seasonal uptick in US cold storage inventory, but this year’s modest 0.6pc increase on the previous month fell below historical trends.

Source: Steiner Consulting

Several factors are at play, US analyst Len Steiner says.

Len Steiner

“High storage and raw material costs have discouraged stockpiling, and there’s growing uncertainty in export markets,” he said. “The tight domestic supplies across many products are adding upward pressure on prices as we move into the higher demand months of late (northern hemisphere) spring and summer.”

In terms of beef stocks held in cold storage, Mr Steiner said latest figures may be supportive of prices going into spring. At the end of February, total US beef inventory had declined to 194,000t, 13.6pc below the five-year average for the month. From January to February this year, beef cold storage inventory dropped by 5.9pc, outpacing the long-run average decline.

“Inventory accumulation has been held back by a combination of lower US cow slaughter rates and steady domestic demand,” he said. “While beef imports are up, that product appears to be quickly absorbed into the market rather than being stored.”

RMAC calls for calm

In advance of the tariff decisions due tomorrow morning, the Red Meat Advisory Council has issued the following statement, under the headline: “Australian meat well-positioned to adapt to dynamic global markets”

Australia’s peak red meat bodies have called for calm in response to heightened speculation about possible US tariffs on all imports.

Any new US tariffs on Australian meat would be a concern, but in a highly diversified global export market, quality Australian meat remains in strong demand. Industry will assess and respond as necessary if any concrete measures are applied to Australian exports.

Red Meat Advisory Council chair John McKillop said industry had well established frameworks for presenting a unified approach on behalf of the whole supply chain.

“Australia’s red meat peak industry bodies have been actively engaged and working with key government partners and political leaders to ensure that the sector’s views are known, and that industry is equipped to respond to any changes to our export market access. We would ask that all stakeholders remain calm and not jump at shadows but wait until announcements have been made.”

Australian Meat Industry Council chief executive Tim Ryan said while the US was a significant and highly valued trading partner for Australian meat, demand for Australian product remains strong both within the US and globally.

“Producers, processors and exporters should be comforted by the fact that Australian meat is world-renowned and widely sought-after in the US and elsewhere. Australia is a valued, long-standing, reliable supplier to global customers,” Mr Ryan said.

“Australian meat, particularly lean trimmings, is a significant input into US burger production and is a reliable, safe protein for US consumers. Seasonal conditions, topography and climate vary between our two countries, underpinning differences in meat production systems and enabling Australia to complement seasonal and cyclical gaps in US supply.”

“With strong demand in the US and globally for Australian meat, the American people will be the ones to wear the cost of any tariffs applied to our exports.”

“Tariffs will not change the underlying context and demand that underpins Australian trade to the US.”

“The global demand for high-quality Australian red meat continues to grow, and our supply chain is well-positioned to respond to shifts in the international trade landscape. The past five years have been a case study in how Australian exporters have demonstrated their ability to manage risk and navigate change to world trade, security and consumer habits.”

Cattle Australia chairman Garry Edwards said Australian beef exports played a crucial role in complimenting American shortfalls in both high-quality cuts and hamburger beef.

“Australia is the United States’ preferred supplier of high-quality grassfed steaks and their demand for this product is expected to continue, given seasonal constraints of US supply,” Mr Edwards said.

“And without Australian lean beef blended with local fatty grainfed trimmings, the US would need to use higher value cuts in their burgers and miss out on valuable export opportunities.

“It is important that the mutually beneficial role of each country’s supply chain is recognised in these ongoing discussions.”

US beef industry eyes Australian market amid talks

ANZ Bank’s executive director of food and agribusiness insights, Michael Whitehead, said Australia remained the largest supplier of beef to the US, shipping 395,000t in 2024, primarily for burger production and further processing.

“If the US imposes tariffs of 8pc or more, Australian beef could become significantly less competitive – impacting export volumes, processor margins, and domestic cattle prices,” he said.

Beyond the threat of tariffs, US beef industry groups were expected to push for greater access to the Australian market – a move that the Australian industry has consistently opposed due to biosecurity concerns, Mr Whitehead said.

“While Australia prohibits fresh US beef imports, the US has a long history of using tariff threats as leverage in trade negotiations. If this issue gains traction, it could become a major point of contention for Australian producers and policymakers,” he said.

If US demand for Australian beef declines, cattle prices – particularly for categories supplying lean manufacturing beef – could come under pressure.

A tariff announcement could potentially see the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator fall by 20-40c/kg, Mr Whitehead said.

“Processors, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales, may face tighter margins and operational recalibrations. Regional employment, processing efficiency, and cold chain logistics could also be affected,” he said.

If US tariffs reduce Australian exports, alternative markets like Japan, South Korea, and China could offer opportunities.

“Japan already sources 39pc of its beef imports from Australia, South Korea 45pc, and China 17pc. However, competitors like Brazil, New Zealand, and Argentina are also well positioned to capitalise on any disruption in US trade flows.

“The Australian beef sector has shown resilience before, but with US trade policy evolving, maintaining diversified markets, agile supply chains, and strong biosecurity protections will be essential,” Mr Whitehead said.

• Beef Central will publish a summary of Trump tariff outcomes impacting red meat trade tomorrow.