AUSTRALIAN beef exports have officially hit an all-time annual record in 2024, reaching 1.34 million tonnes.

The new benchmark (1,343,568 tonnes, to be exact) exceeds the previous record of 1.29 million tonnes set in 2014, driven squarely by drought-fuelled cattle turnoff at the time.

Helping secure the new record annual shipment volume was extraordinarily high December export trade, which hit an in-month record of 127,393t. December and January are normally quiet months for Australian beef export activity, weather often bears an influence and many processors take their annual holiday breaks.

However last month proved to be the exception, with December registering the third highest monthly volume all year, exceeded only by October (+130,000t) and July (+129,000t).

Some of the unusual late surge in trade was due to shipments being made in advance of Safeguard Tariff adjustments due to take place from 1 January – specifically in South Korea and China (see earlier stories) where market protection tariffs leapt due to unusually large shipments earlier in the year.

Driven in part by stronger international demand, the 2024 record export tonnage was up a spectacular 261,000t or 24 percent on the previous 2023 year.

Laying the foundation

Laying the foundation for the new record has been the completion in national herd rebuild after the 2019-20 drought years, plus long-term increase in carcase weights.

While there was some evidence of destocking happening in regions of southern Australia during the back half of 2024, northern Australia generally had adequate to better-than-good grass-growing conditions through the year.

Meat & Livestock Australia in September estimated the national cattle herd size at 30.2 million head, but foreshadowed a small 2pc decline this year to 29.6m, due to the effects of herd retraction in areas of southern Australia.

Adult cattle slaughter last year reached about 8.2 million head, the highest figure since 2019. Adult cattle slaughter is expected to edge higher to 8.38m head, some 200,000 head more than last year.

Looking forward, slaughter will remain relatively stable in 2025 and 2026 as turn-off continues from a high base, MLA suggests. MLA anticipates beef production this year (including both exports and domestically-consumed beef) to reach 2.55 million tonnes, as international demand for beef remains strong as overseas supply dynamics create opportunities on the global market.

To give MLA’s analysts their due, their August forecast of total 2024 beef exports (shipped weight) at 1.359 mt was barely 15,000t or 1pc above the actual result.

“The United States cattle herd is likely to enter 2025 smaller than it was in 2024, a year which saw the US herd at its lowest point in 72 years,” MLA said in its most recent (September) industry projections update.

“Regardless of when the US enters a rebuild phase, its cattle supply will nevertheless remain low as calving rates during the past five years have been below average and cattle availability has already begun to decline,” it said.

“The current beef shortage in the US will continue to drive demand for Australian beef globally, both in the US as a direct substitute for domestic product, but also in key north Asian export markets where Australia and the US compete for market share.”

Carcase weights

Allied with higher rates of adult cattle slaughter last year was heavier carcase weights – a long-term industry trend.

Growing momentum in lotfeeding, and a declining proportion of females in the national kill has pushed average carcase weights higher.

Australian carcase weights have been increasing since data collection began in 1970. Back then, the average adult cattle carcase weight was just 207kg. In the second quarter of last year – 54 years later – the average weight was almost 100kg heavier at 305kg, representing a 47pc increase. Improvements to production practices, operational decisions, export and domestic retail demands, investments in genetics, and growth in feedlots have all contributed to the advancing weight profile in carcases.

Looking in the shorter term, in the last ten years carcase weights have lifted from 277kg to 307kg. Weights hit 300kg for the first time at the start of 2018, however dipped over the following three years due to a drought-driven destock which caused a higher portion of female turnoff. After this, the herd went into a strong rebuild phase, lifting weights back up as more male cattle (proportionately) were turned off, and appetite for lotfeeding grew.

Since the tail end of the national herd rebuild, and through the current maintenance period, carcase weights have flattened out as producers turn off more female breeding stock which were retained over the rebuild.

Most export markets surge

Most, but not all of Australia’s key beef export markets showed strong volume growth in 2024, due both to increases in Australian production, and declining rates of production by our major export competitor, the United States.

That has been reflected in both direct Australian shipments to the US, as well as larger shipments to countries where US and Australian high quality table meat compete.

As has been the case since September, 2023, the United States continued to dominate beef trade out of Australia last year.

Total shipments for the 2024 year reached 394,715 tonnes – close to the all-time annual record – and more than 148,000t or 60pc higher than the previous calendar year. December shipments were particularly high, reflecting the deteriorating availability situation in the US grinding beef market, with tonnage reaching 42,158t for the month. That was second only in monthly statistics last year to October, when a blistering 45,338t was put on the water – the highest monthly volumes seen since 2014.

Partly as a result of displacement of US beef, Japan was also sharply higher in Australian beef volume last year, reaching 247,604t – up almost 41,000t or 20pc compared with the previous year.

For similar reasons South Korea was also much improved last year, topping 200,545t by the end of December – up 11,600t or 6pc on the previous 2023 year.

Compared with earlier years, China continues to struggle due to tight economic conditions, filling fourth place among Australia’s beef export customers last year accounting for 193,227t of Aussie beef – most of it in frozen form. That was down almost 13,000t or 6pc on  the previous year.

Secondary and emerging markets

Secondary and emerging markets was one of the key features of Australia’s beef export performance during 2024, headlined by destinations like Indonesia and Canada.

Nearest neighbour Indonesia has exploded as a boxed beef market for Australia during 2024, in addition to, rather than in place of live cattle export trade.

Total volume last year reached a record 84,178t, up almost 16,000t or 23pc on the previous year.

Smaller Asian customers like Taiwan, the Philippines and Thailand also lifted sharply, rising to 32,600t, 30,800t and 22,300t respectively.

Canada came out of nowhere last year to secure 29,300t of Australian beef, up 36pc on the previous year.

Trade into the Middle East region continues to be plagued by competition against cheap imports out of South America, with the seven main ME destination countries accounting for 36,631t, still up 25pc on the previous year.

Easily the biggest disappointment among export customers last year was the performance of the United Kingdom market, following activation of the new Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement on 1 June, 2023.

Far from the ‘avalanche’ of Australian beef as predicted by UK farmers opposed to the trade deal, total Australian exports last year reached just 6296t, ranking the UK number 14 on Australia’s export customer base.

In the absence of any progress in an FTA deal, the surrounding European Union countries took 13,070t last year, up about 7000t on the previous 2023 year.

Australia’s impressive beef export performance last year deserves recognition, particularly as significant challenges in the broader consumer landscape remain. Global economic pressures, high living costs and ongoing political and trade uncertainties continue to affect consumer confidence and profitability for many supply chain participants.

• Stand by for a value comparison for 2024 beef exports in coming weeks, in addition to this volume report, once data becomes available.
• Beef Central’s daily email alerts and regular industry coverage return for the year next Monday, 13 January.