An average to slightly above-average number of tropical cyclones are likely to form in the Australian region this season.
The season, which typically runs from November to April, usually sees around 11 cyclones in Australian waters, with around four of these crossing the coast. Australia has always seen at least one tropical cyclone cross the coast each season since reliable records began in the 1970s.
This outlook is influenced by:
La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean
average to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north of Australia
In La Niña years, the first cyclone to develop across the Australian region typically occurs earlier than normal, around the middle of December. During average years the first tropical cyclone to make landfall over Australia is typically in early January.
Tropical cyclones that stay well out to sea can still cause damaging winds, large and dangerous waves, and storm surges along the coast.
Tropical lows that do not intensify into cyclones, or lows that are the remnants of older cyclones, can cause widespread rainfall and dangerous flooding. These impacts can extend beyond the tropics into southern areas of the country.