AUSTRALIA is on track to ship record chilled and frozen beef volume into China for the month of March, as exporters race to maximise their opportunity before our 2026 quota is filled and hefty tariffs are introduced.  

According to notices issued last week by China’s Ministry of Commerce, as of March 25 beef imports from Australia had already reached 50 percent of the 2026 beef safeguard quota of 205,000 tonnes.

The notice warned that the additional tariff of 55pc will be imposed starting from the third day after the date on which the imported beef from a specific country reaches its annual safeguard quota.

The current tariff rate for Australian beef entering China is zero, but a 55pc impost would make trade for most products into the China market prohibitive, export trade sources suggest.

It’s now anticipated that Australia will fill its 2026 quota some time between mid-May and early June, after which, product previously destined for China is likely to have to find homes elsewhere.

As at 26 March, Australia had already shipped more than 39,000 tonnes for the month into the ‘Other Asia’ category, the vast bulk of which is accounted for by trade into China.

With March monthly export data likely to be released by DAFF later this week, it’s looking increasingly likely that Australia will ship its largest monthly volume on record to China this month as exporters compete to beat the looming safeguard quota.

Based on the current pace of shipments, analyst Expana’s estimates put the final March figure at around 45,533t, which would easily eclipse the previous monthly record set in 2019 when exports went close to 35,000t during herd liquidation as a result of drought.

“This current spike is fundamentally different,” Expana analyst Junie Lin reported.

“Instead of a weather-driven supply push, the current surge is fueled by a regulatory race to beat China’s new 2026 safeguard quota, which was rolled out on 1 January.

Australia’s 2026 quota is set at 205,000t, almost 90,000t less than last year’s total shipments.

“While Australia’s Free Trade Agreement with China initially capped the safeguard tariff at 12pc, the measure is now being applied at a hefty 55pc. At this level, the math for Australian beef in China stops making sense almost overnight, and this ‘dash for the door’ is why volumes have reached its boiling point in recent weeks,” Ms Lin said.

“Nevertheless, hitting the safeguard trigger still presents a genuine challenge. China remains a unique market because of its sheer size and willingness to pay premiums for specific cuts that are harder to sell elsewhere. The sudden imposition of a 55pc tariff will inevitably force exporters to recalculate their margins.”

“As 2026 progresses, the real conversation will not just be about when the China quota runs out, but how seamlessly Australian beef pivots back to the rest of the world when it does,” Ms Lin said.

JBS view on China quota impact

Analysts participating in JBS’s full-year results briefing last week asked about the China quota impact on the company’s Australian and Brazilian exports into the market.  

JBS global chief executive Gilberto Tomazoni said there were two different scenarios, in terms of the impact in Australia, and in Braizil.

“In Australia, we are not anticipating any challenge in terms of what happens after the quota is triggered in China, because Australia has a strong market demand and a very strong presence in Japan, in Korea, and in all of the Asian markets, as well as in US and Europe.

“For Australia, it’s easier to manage the volume for each one of these markets, so we are not really worried about this situation.

In Brazil, triggering its China quota might be more complicated, Mr Tomazoni said.

“Our Friboi team (JBS Brazil beef operations) is confident that they will be able to deliver results this year in line with last year,” he said.

“We are confident on that because global demand for protein is high, especially for beef. We are expecting Brazil to fill its China quota by mid-year, and in reality, we don’t know how China will manage after these quotas (imposed on Brazil, Australia and others) restrict supply.”

Mr Tomazoni told analysts he believed that some of China’s beef supplier countries would likely not be able to fill their 2026 quotas. “We cannot speculate (what that means for other exporters), but this is a fact,” he said.

Regardless of the China situation, JBS Brazil had developed new international markets, new sales chains, and was investing heavily in value-added products combined with customer service, he said.

•  March beef exports summary later this week