BEFORE we get onto slaughter cattle and meat price trends this week, let’s pose a question:  Should Aussie processors be tapping into the big pool of idle NZ meatworkers that has emerged this year?

It seems incongruous that while the Australian red meat processing industry continues to struggle with lack of access to plant labour, the nearby New Zealand industry has just put 3000 meatworkers onto seasonal layoff, due to declining numbers of slaughter cattle and sheep.

Major NZ red meat processor Silver Fern Farms’ chief executive Dan Boulton told a recent Primary Industries New Zealand summit that his company was pulling thousands of seasonal workers off the chain to match capacity with supply of livestock.

“We have about 3000 of our workers on seasonal layoff right now, which normally would be running full steam as we work through the back-end of the (cull dairy) cow season,” he told Radio New Zealand last week.

Mr Boulton said the NZ beef kill was down another 4pc on 2024 and the lamb kills down 9pc, creating procurement tension among the different processing companies. The national NZ sheep flock had fallen 21pc in the past decade to 23.6m, while dairy cattle fell by 13pc or 860,000 over the decade with the national herd now 5.8m.

“Those are some big adjustments that the New Zealand processing sector has to make. Clearly, we have a capacity imbalance, that’s creating a little uncertainty,” Mr Boulton said.

Consistently declining livestock numbers also saw NZ farmer-owned cooperative Alliance Group close its Smithfield processing plant in Timaru last year, leaving workers without roles to fill.

Silver Fern’s most recent financial year recorded a $21.8m after-tax loss, on top of a $24.4m loss in 2023. Largest competitor, Alliance Group, reported an after-tax loss of $95.8m for the year ended September, half of which accounted for the redundancies associated with the closure of the Smithfield plant.

All this got us thinking: Is there a window there to recruit seasonal skilled labour from NZ for Australian processing?

Short-term solutions like this may not be the best answer, but there’s clearly big profit margins to be had by Australian processors at present, given global demand for beef, and labour for many is the key limiting factor.

Here’s what DFAT says about NZ worker eligibility:

New Zealand citizens generally do not need a visa to work in Australia. They are typically granted a Special Category Visa (subclass 444) upon arrival, which allows them to live, work, and study in Australia indefinitely. This visa is a result of the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement.

Heavy slaughter cattle in high demand

Now back to the markets. As the industry reaches the winter mid-point, what’s emerging is particularly high demand for slaughter cattle (especially cows) with weight. That’s especially evident in saleyards procurement, where some heavy tussles have been occurring between southern NSW, Victorian and even South Australian processors, and those further north.

Last Thursday’s Dubbo sale saw heavy cows hit a new yards record price of 360c/kg liveweight and average 341c (see sale highlights below). This morning’s Gunnedah and Wodonga sales both saw heavy cows sell to 350c/kg, and Dalby sale last week had big-framed Santa cows pushing to 340c.

At a typical heavy cow dressing percentage of 51.5pc, that values a 550kg cow sold at 341c liveweight at more than 660c/kg dressed, and a cow sold at 360c live at just short of an incredible 700c/kg dressed, or almost $1960 a head. Some big price differences are clearly emerging between what’s described as a ‘bullock cow’ +300kg dressed, and a 260kg cow. In one example, a processor contact suggested the heavy cow +300kg could this week make 640c dressed, delivered SEQ, while a 260kg cow was 570c.

This partly explains why some cows sold via the saleyards channel in NSW and Queensland recently have been grain-assisted, as discussed in this earlier article.

One Queensland-based processor this morning suggested his southern competitors currently active in the northern market were effectively ‘buying meat’ (evidently a reference to weight).

Turning cows into steers?

The cynics amongst us might suggest that such high prices for slaughter cows indicates one possibility: cow meat being substituted into a grass ox export primal pack, at higher value. Any time Beef Central has raised this prospect with AusMeat, the regulatory body has stridently denied that there is any evidence it is going on – but there are certainly stakeholders who suspect it is more widespread in southern parts of the country than what many might expect.

Little change in grid offers

There’s been little, if any sign of alternations to direct consignment grid offers across eastern and southern Australia over the past seven days.

Most Queensland processors are holding solid bookings out to the last week in July, and early August in some cases.

While some of those are unpriced (grid slots allocated only, with price to be negotiated closer to slaughter date), there has clearly been a shift in policy by some Queensland processors, now prepared to offer a price further out.

One explanation for this may be the added competition evident for Queensland cattle at present from Midfield and a posse of other southern processors now active on a daily basis in sourcing out of the northern state. Offering a price, rather than just a kill slot, may be one way to keep those cattle local, rather than concede them to a southern competitor.

Export processors in the southern regions of Queensland have over-the-hooks offers today with four-tooth grass ox on 620-630c/kg, and heavy cows 550-560c/kg.

Processors in the Central Queensland region are 520-530c/kg on heavy cows and 600-610c/kg on four-tooth heavy steer.

In southern states, grid offers are steady this week. In eastern parts of South Australia, grids are showing 630c on heavy cows and 710c on four-tooth grass ox. Southern regions of NSW show best cows on 630c and four-tooth grass heavy steer 710c. Both sites are up 20c on this time last month.

Beyond those formal grid offers, there’s suggestions this week that a southern operator or two might have as much as 690c/kg dressed weight available for choice Angus slaughter cows, to go into program business.

What’s particularly evident this year is that as lotfeeding operations have grown – especially beyond the industry’s largest production area centred on southern Queensland and northern NSW – some southern processors now have a better supply of mid-winter slaughter cattle (via grainfeds) than they have had in the past.

A southern NSW specialist cow processor this week has heavy cows +300kg on 600c/kg and 590c on lighter cows +275kg, for delivery week commencing 21 July.

Kills hit new seasonal record

NLRS-reported national cattle slaughter surged to another new seasonal record last week, reaching 158,922 head for the week ended Friday. The number was up 5480 head on the previous week, which was itself the previous 2025 record, and about 15,200 higher than this time last year.

Queensland was the big advance, jumping more than 4900 on the previous week, while NSW added another 457 head.

Saleyards performance

There have been some weather disruptions evident in the saleyards channel over the past week.

Wodonga sale this morning yarded 800 head, with cows making up half the offering. Quality improved for trade cattle with most grain-assisted. The sale again featured grain-assisted cows, which drew interest from buyers. On the export front, well-bred steers 500-600kg were primarily purchased by feedlots, with prices ranging from 420-435c/kg. Heavy steers destined for processors sold from 357-420c/kg.  In the cow sale, grain-assisted cows attracted intense bidding, with prices similar to the previous sale to average 350c/kg. Leaner cows sold at stronger price trends prices, ranging from 246-338c/kg.

Wagga sale yesterday yarded 2655, down 1200 on last week due to rain. The quality of the cattle was largely classified as secondary, and weights have declined significantly, with a marked increase in the number of cattle weighing under 400kg. On the export front, the availability of heavy well finished cattle was limited. Bullocks saw a price increase of 20c, reaching a top price of 450c and averaging 427c/kg. Heavy steers sold from 355-414c/kg. The number of cows available for sale dropped, prompting buyers to increase their bids to secure a market share. Heavy cows improved by 12c, selling at prices between 334-360c/kg. Leaner cows less than 520kg experienced strong demand, with prices ranging from 220-346c/kg.

Gunnedah sale this morning yarded 2300, up almost 500 on last week. Trends improved through most categories with extra competition from southern processors. Grown steers to process sold from 326-355c/kg, grown heifers were 19c better from 324-356c/kg. Heavy cows were up to 15c/kg dearer selling from 245c to 350c/kg.

Roma sale this morning yarded only 6576 head. At the time of this interim report (full results tomorrow) Yearling steers 400-480kg sold to 440c/kg, grown steers +600kg sold to 398c and grown heifers +540kg to 368c/kg. Cows were yet to sell at the time of this report.

Last Thursday’s Dubbo sale yarded 3260, back 600 on a week earlier due to rain. The highlight of the sale was cows reaching a new level selling to 360c/kg. It was a fair to good quality yarding with good numbers of young cattle to suit the feeders and processors along with good numbers of top cows. Prime grown steers sold from 370-426c while the grown heifers sold from 340-414c/kg. Prime heavy weight cows were up to 28c dearer while the secondary cows were 14c/kg dearer. Score 2 and 3 cows sold from 245-312c while the prime heavyweights sold from 300c to 360c to average 341c/kg.