The Bureau of Meteorology says Australia can expect near average tropical cyclone activity this season.
The Bureau’s latest National Tropical Cyclone Outlook, released today, says neutral conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (neither El Niño nor La Niña) means that there is no strong shift expected in the average number or location of tropical cyclones.
The tropical cyclone season typically runs from November 1 to April 30, with an average of 11 tropical cyclones typically experienced during that period.
On average four tropical cyclones cross the coast each year, though coastal impacts can be felt when tropical cyclones remain well offshore.
On average the first tropical cyclone to cross the coast usually occurs in late December.
Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have been neutral since October 2012.
This means that the sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific are neither La Niña nor El Niño and is therefore not driving the Australian Region toward significantly more or fewer tropical cyclones than average.
“As such, the forecast is suggesting a season closer to average,” the outlook states.
“Over the entire Australian Region, this statistical relationship has proven to be highly accurate, or a skilful way to forecast tropical cyclone activity.
However the report notes that forecast skill can vary at a regional level.
The chance of above average tropical cyclone activity for the Australian region is rated at 57pc. For more specific regions, the western region is considered to have a 53pc chance of above average cyclone activity, the north-western sub-region 55pc, the eastern region 53pc and the northern region 52pc.
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