Feed grain update: High noon in markets as big harvest looms

Luke Walker, Robinson Grain Trading, Toowoomba, 18/09/2015
Luke Walker

Luke Walker, Robinson Grain Trading, Toowoomba

Grain markets on the east coast of Australia are yet again entering an interesting period as a big harvest looms just around the corner and growers and grain buyers start eye balling each other on who is going to win the gun fight.

Currently the buyers are sitting back out of the market watching the price fall and thinking they may just get a win with reports from ABARE forecasting a 25.3 million tonne wheat crop and 8.6 million tonnes of barley. Lot feeders also have concerns on what capacity or cattle numbers they will be running at in 2016 and are unsure how much grain cover they need to secure prior to harvest.

Growers are also sitting out of the market as they don’t feel comfortable at these lower values and will store and carry white grains into 2016. Growers with chickpeas also have the luxury of having recent record breaking prices to sell into with demand for their peas in November delivered Downs Packers this week trading $810 landed. However in the past few days this price has come off by more than $100 with demand waning from our Indian customers.

Growers are also factoring in the current El Nino pattern and what impact it will have over the next 6 months. This pattern would normally mean dry conditions with some storm rain in later months.

Export markets have been steady for new crop with wheat export parity on the East coast about $15 away from connecting to export buyers, although sales have been done out of South Australia. Barley export parity East Coast is about $25 away so watch this space it’s sure to get interesting. Bulk handlers that own trains will want to keep things rolling so don’t be surprised to see some export done on the East Coast.

New Crop feed grain markets Delivered November/December onto the Downs for wheat $275 landed, Barley Downs $253, Cotton Seed gin spread 2016 $440 delivered Downs. Liverpoole Plain wheat delivered new crop $262 and barley $225 with limited demand from buyers. Goulbourn Valley Victoria wheat trading December $267 delivered and barley $225.

  • Prices quoted in this column are of an indicative nature only to illustrate trends and do not represent a definitive buy or sell price at a given point in time. For specific prices for your region contact the author at luke@robinsongrain.com.au or (07) 4659 0755 or twitter @lukergtgrain


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