To read the English version of this report, click here

Main Points

• The excess supply in a number of fattening Indonesia continues to suppress the price of beef cattle, where total annual imports reach 545,000.
• The AUD exchange rate weakens against all of its customers’ currencies in Asia, and this helps to offset the sharp rise in the price of feeder cattle in northern Australia.

 

Indonesia: Steer Beef , AUD $ 3.88 / kg live weight (Rp. 10,300 = AUD $ 1)

The very high number of feeder cattle imports in August (70 thousand heads) has resulted in continued pressure on the price of beef cattle in markets that have been oversupplied , coupled with a number of discounts that make prices decline. This oversupply will soon be exacerbated by the output of 81,000 heads of cattle imported in October. Price of steer beef cattlein December it ranged from the highest bid worth IDR 41,500 per kg of live weight, while the lowest bid reported was IDR 38,000 per kg of live weight. I use IDR 40,000 as a price indicator for December. According to traders, even the lowest prices cannot sell as many cows that have been fed for as long as they want. There are many ready-made cattle that have been imported since October which will flow into this very weak market, so the price of beef cattle seems to be a further problem until January and February.

This sales pressure may be related to the large discounts seen in a number of supermarket chains in Jakarta this month. See the photo below, where the price of coconut meat ( knuckle ) fell by more than 30% from Rp.15,795 to Rp.10,990 per 100 grams.

 

 

A total of 45,000 cattle will be imported in November, of which 40,000 will be sent during December, so the total imports for 2018 calendar year will be 545,000 or an average of 45,400 per month. Given that the current domestic market signal shows the need for fresh beef imports, the figure seems too high, while a more reasonable monthly average should be between 35 thousand and 40 thousand.

Recently, I spent several days on vacation in southern Lombok, and I was surprised by the sheer number of buffaloes grazed in the vast grasslands along the southern coast. South Lombok was not so affected by the recent earthquake, because the northern region which is a tourism area is still quite strong. Although many new tourist accommodations are being built, most of them are located in higher locations and are safe from tsunamis, as shown in the photo below.

 

The audit of the importer’s performance on the import provisions of 1 broodstock for 5 cows will be completed by the government, which only needs to re-examine the import licenses of feeder and broiler cattle that have been issued for each importer for the past two years. There is only one small migrant in the live cattle import business that may comply with this policy. So, now everyone is waiting when the government announces its response, which will definitely be big news.

The price of feeder cattle in northern Australia rose sharply in December, with the price of Darwin’s steer cattle rising from around $ 3.05 to $ 3.25 per kg of live weight. Market observers told me that this was mainly related to a sudden shortage of supplies, which seemed to surprise the market and not just a matter of increasing demand. The sudden decline in the AUD exchange rate against all of its customers’ currencies in Asia is of course welcome, but unfortunately for Indonesia, this is still not enough to offset the increase in CIF prices to be paid in January and early February, to allow fattening places to fill inventory for annual requests that will peak at Ramadan (May) and Eid (June 5-10).

Vietnam: Steer Beef , AUD $ 4.30 / kg (VND 16,500 = AUD $ 1)

The price of beef cattle in Vietnam is still strong, just like last month with price changes in the AUD above occurring solely because of the weakening of AUD $. Cows steer the fat in the southern region sold for 70,000 VND while the bulls are similar in the north could attract up to 76,000 VND.

Cattle delivery carried out in December to all regions of the country including central Vietnam with inventory at the end of December increased to around 70% of the national capacity of 100,000 birds. Tet national holidays for 2019 will take place from February 2 to 10, so exporters and importers will most likely be busy in January, to ensure that supplies will be adequate for food-loving populations in Vietnam. Because Vietnam’s economy is one of the strongest in the world, the business prospects for 2019 look bright. In fact, the economy in the entire Southeast Asia region stands out in comparison with the performance of estimates worldwide.

Estimated GDP Growth. Obtained from various sources, IMF, World Bank, etc.

Location	2018 GDP growth	2019 Growth Prediction
World	3	2.9
USA	2.9	2.5
European Region	2.1	1.8
Australia	2.8	2.5
China	6.5	6.2
Vietnamese	6.9	6.7
Indonesia	5.2	5.2
The Philippines	6.4	6.5
Thailand	4.5	4.1
Cambodia, Lao, Myanmar	6.6+	6.8+

 

The Economist Intelligence Unit recently published a forecast for GDP growth for 2019 which predicts that all our customer countries will be the best performing countries, as shown in the graph below.

China: Beef, AUD $ 5.56 / kg  (RMB 4.90 = AUD $ 1)

Harga sapi potong di Beijing dan Shanghai tetap stabil selama bulan Desember. Sekali lagi, perubahan kecil dalam AUD di atas terutama disebabkan oleh melemahnya AUD. Agen-agen saya melaporkan bahwa meskipun belum ada pergerakan besar pada harga eceran, terdapat kenaikan harga yang signifikan di sektor grosir daging sapi terutama untuk produk berkualitas rendah.  Mungkinkah ini akibat penurunan besar grey trade, terutama dari India, seperti yang dilaporkan oleh Simon Quilty baru-baru ini? Jika benar, kenaikan ini dapat segera merasuk melalui rantai pasok untuk mendongkrak harga eceran.

Pada bulan Desember, saya mengunjungi Cina barat daya, terbang ke Kunming kemudian berlayar menyusuri sungai Mekong melalui Myanmar dan Laos hingga mencapai Segitiga Emas, dimana saya kemudian turun di Thailand bagian utara. Saya akan menulis sebuah artikel terpisah tentang petualangan yang menakjubkan ini dalam beberapa minggu ke depan.

Sewaktu di Kunming, saya tentu saja menyempatkan berkunjung ke beberapa pasar daging sapi termasuk pasar tradisional terbesar di kota yang berpenduduk 10 juta orang ini. Benar-benar pembuka mata. Pasar tradisionalnya sangat bersih, tertata rapi, dan dikelola dengan sangat baik dengan penyajian sejumlah besar produk makanan. Daging babi tentu saja menjadi daging utama yang tersedia, tetapi daging sapi juga disajikan dengan baik, dengan tampilan lengkap daging dan jeroan seperti yang terlihat pada foto di bawah ini.  Salah satu produk yang biasa dijual di sini, yang biasanya tidak saya lihat di pasar tradisional lain di Asia adalah potongan besar daging sapi yang diasinkan. Produk ini dijual seharga Y98 per kg ($ 20 per kg). Kunming terletak pada 24 derajat lintang utara sehingga cuacanya sejuk dan pasar tradisionalnya tetap buka sepanjang hari dimana produk yang dijual tetap awet di udara terbuka.

Area penjualan daging babi sangat besar, tetapi banyak meja yang kosong. Sayangnya, karena kesulitan penerjemahan, saya tidak dapat menentukan apakah hal ini akibat merebaknya wabah African Swine Fever atau karena faktor lain. Simak diskusi terperinci dari Simon Quilty tentang situasi ASF yang menunjukkan bahwa lebih banyak lagi gangguan yang akan terjadi terhadap pasar.

 

 

 

Filipina: Sapi Potong, AUD $4,19/kg (Peso 37,5 = AUD $1)

Harga sapi potong dalam Peso masih sama untuk bulan ini (sekitar 157 Peso per kg bobot hidup) dengan kenaikan besar dalam harga AUD di atas diakibatkan oleh melemahnya AUD $. Perpduan antara kekuatan relatif Peso, ramalan terhadap pertumbuhan PDB yang sangat kuat, ditambah terus menguatnya harga sapi lokal, mestinya memberi dorongan lebih lanjut bagi para eksportir sapi hidup Australia bahwa pasar Filipina sekali lagi dapat menjadi pelanggan yang signifikan bagi sapi bakalan Australia dalam waktu dekat.

Thailand: Sapi Potong Steer, AUD $3,97/kg (Baht 23,3 = AUD $1)

Harga sapi potong di Thailand melemah pada bulan Desember, dimana sapi steer dijual seharga THB 91 sementara sapi jantan dijual seharga THB 94 per kg bobot hidup.

Setelah menyusuri sungai Mekong dengan perahu di Thailand bagian utara, kami turun dan melakukan perjalanan ke Bangkok dan mengunjungi beberapa supermarket besar di mana “The Beef Master” yang merupakan perpaduan restoran dan penjualan daging eceran menjalankan bisnis yang sangat sibuk di MBK Centre. Iklannya menjelaskan bahwa daging sapi mereka berasal dari sapi impor Australia yang digemukkan dalam kondisi terbaik, kemudian diproses untuk kualitas sajian maksimum termasuk pelayuan kering selama 55 hari untuk beberapa bagian potongan daging. Daging sapi yang disajikan terlihat luar luar biasa dan rasanya pun amat lezat. 

harga untuk produk-produk yang bersumber dari sapi impor hidup ini sangat bervariasi, mulai dari yang tertinggi yaitu 55day dry aged “Black Label” Tomahawk @ Bht 2.420 per kg atau AUD $103,86. Non dry aged Tomahawk @ Bht 1.650 atau $70,82, T-bone @ Bht 1.340 atau $57,51, Tenderloin @ Bht 2.050 atau $87,98, Rib Eye @ Bht 1.690 atau $72,53 dan striploin @ Bht 1.375 atau $59,01.

 

December 2018 price table

Angka-angka pada tabel ini dikonversi ke AUD$ dari kurs masing-masing negara yang berubah setiap harinya, sehingga harga aktualnya sedikit berbeda oleh fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang asing yang terus berubah. Harga dalam AUD$ yang disajikan di bawah ini hendaknya dilihat sebagai sebuah tren, bukannya harga persis masing-masingnya. Bila memungkinkan, daging potong yang digunakan untuk penentuan harga di pasar tradisional dan di supermarket adalah bagian knuckle/round  atau yang biasa disebut daging kelapa.

 

Location	Date	Wet Market AUD$/kg	Super market $/kg	Broiler chicken $/kg	Live Steer Slaughter Wt AUD$/kg
Indonesia	July 18	12.21	14.83	3.57	3.80
Rp10,650	August 18	12.21	18.69	3.29	3.94
Rp10,700	Sept 18	12.15	14.95	3.37	4.02
Rp10,700	Oct 18	12.15	18.60	3.27	3.93
Rp10,650	Nov 18	12.21	14.84	3.57	3.85
Rp10,300	Dec 18	12.62	10.58	3.69	3.88
Philippines	July 18	8.56	8.73	3.80	3.54
P38.8	August 18	8.89	9.15	3.87	3.74
P39.0	Sept 18	8.85	9.36	3.59	3.72
P38.2	Oct 18	9.95	10.47	3.66	4.06
P38.2	Nov 18	10.99	10.73	3.80	4.11
P37.5	Dec 18	11.20	10.93	3.87	4.19
Thailand	July 18	8.94	11.38	2.56	3.74
THB 23.8	August 18	9.24	11.76	2.94	3.99
THB23.5	Sept 18	9.36	11.91	2.98	3.98
THB23.5	Oct 18	9.36	12.34	2.97	4.09
THB23.9	Nov 18	8.37	11.72	2.92	3.97
THB23.3	Dec 18	8.58	12.02	3.00	3.97
Vietnamese	July 18	18.13	17.66	12.68	4.04
D16,900	August 18	18.34	17.87	7.99	4.08
D16,800	Sept 18	18.45	16.61	8.04	4.17
D16,700	Oct 18	18.56	16.71	8.08	4.13
D16,900	Nov 18	18.34	17.87	7.69	4.14
D16,500	Dec 18	18.78	18.30	7.88	4.30
Beijing China	July 18	12.40	6:00 p.m.	3.60	5.30
Y4.95	August 18	12.93	18.18	4.04	5.45
Y4.94	Sept 18	12.55	18.12	4.05	5.55
Y4.95	Oct 18	12.53	15.76	3.64	5.45
Y5.02	Nov 18	12.75	15.94	–	5.48
Y4.90	Dec 18	12.65	16.32	4.08	5.61
Shanghai	July 18	16.80	21.60	4.00	5.20
	August 18	16.16	21.80	4.44	5.25
	Sept 18	17.00	21.86	4.66	5.67
	Oct 18	16.16	21.82	4.44	5.66
	Nov 18	16.73	21.51	4.98	5.58
	Dec 18	17.55	22.04	4.90	5.51