After a subdued start to the year for northern cattle exports to Indonesia, the stage is set for a return to higher volumes in April, provided northern paddocks dry out in time for cattle movements to flow.

Trade volumes have been impacted in the first six weeks of the year by an Indonesian Government move to lower the maximum price cap at which feedlots can sell slaughter-weight cattle during the Ramadan and Lebaran period now underway.

The move was designed to keep beef at affordable price levels for consumers during the holy month, which this year runs from mid-February to mid-March.

However, lowering the feedlot sale price to below the level at which Indonesian feedlots can buy Australian live feeder cattle also meant shipments became loss-making for both exporters and importers after the reference price was reduced.

Only about 20,000 cattle have been exported from Australia to Indonesia since January 1.

The earlier than usual February-March timing of Ramadan this year saw almost 140,000 head exported from Australia to Indonesia in November and December last year.

Some trade sources believe the maximum price cap is only in place for the duration of the Ramadan period, but others have told Beef Central there is still some uncertainty with no clear confirmation yet from the Indonesian Government that will be the case.

If the maximum price cap is returned to a higher level after Ramadan, as many expect, Indonesian feedlot demand should be reinvigorated just in time to coincide with the annual seasonal influx of cattle from first-round dry-season musters in April.

Cattle supply is expected to be strong after successive favourable seasons, with many producers also looking to sell to unlock cash flow.

The key uncertainty remains ongoing wet conditions across large parts of northern Australia, which could delay mustering and shipments.

Official export data for January from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry showed that Australia exported 23,497 cattle in January to eight different countries including Qatar, Brunei, Philippines, Sarawak, Pakistan, Turkey, Vietnam and Indonesia for the month.