Weather

Seasonal climate outlook Nov 2023-Jan 2024

Bureau of Meteorology, 27/10/2023

 

 

Drier than median November to January outlook for western, southern, and north-eastern Australia

For November, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60 to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, except for south-west Queensland; most of NSW; and east Gippsland in Victoria, where chances of above or below median rainfall are roughly equal.

Compared to the month of November, the three months of November to January show the below median rainfall signal is less widespread. November to January rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for much of western, southern and north-eastern Australia.

Past accuracy of November to January long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for parts of central Australia and areas to the north of the Great Australian Bight.

Temperature – Warmer November to January days and nights for almost all of Australia

For November, and November to January, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

For November to January, most of Australia is at least 2.5 as likely as normal to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for central and western WA, and parts of northern and eastern Queensland. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
For November, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of Australia, except for most of SA, western Victoria, and Queensland’s north, north-west, and central coastal areas.

For November to January, above median minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, excluding southern SA, western VIC and areas of north-eastern Queensland where the chance of above or below median temperatures is roughly equal.

For November to January, broad areas of Australia are at least 2 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for north-eastern NSW; parts of central and northern WA; the Top End of the NT; and central Queensland, away from coastal regions. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of the November to January long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across almost all of Australia, excluding the central NT, where it has been low. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia but decreases to low to very low for the northern Kimberley in WA, central NT, and a small area of central Queensland.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

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