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Seasonal climate outlook Aug-Oct 2018

by Bureau of Meteorology, 26 July 2018


Click to watch four minute video presentation of the rainfall and temperature forecast for June to Aug 2018.

 

Aug-Oct 2018 rainfall outlook:

A drier three months likely for most of Australia

August to October is likely to be drier than average for most of mainland Australia. Chances are highest in the southeast, where there is a greater than 80pc chance of a drier season for northern Victoria and southern NSW.

Tasmania has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months—so no strong indication either way that it will be particularly wet or dry.

Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia have experienced a very dry first half of the year, so an outlook with increased chances of drier conditions indicates areas currently experiencing drought are less likely to see significant respite in the coming three months.

Historical rainfall outlook accuracy for August to October is moderate over most of the country, except for interior WA, where accuracy is low to very low.

Chance of exceeding 50mm for Aug-Oct:

August 2018 rainfall outlook:

 

Sep 2018 rainfall outlook:

Warmer end to winter likely for Australia

Above average daytime temperatures experienced across Australia so far in 2018 are likely to continue.

August to October days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the country. The chance of warmer days is greater than 80% across large parts of northern and eastern Australia.

Similarly, August days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Much of the country has a greater than 80% chance of warmer August days.

Historical accuracy for August to October maximum temperatures is moderate to high for most of the country but is low in parts of Tasmania and northern WA, and the southern two-thirds of the NT. Historical accuracy for minimum temperatures is moderate for the northern half of Australia, SA, and Tasmania, but low to very low elsewhere.

Minimum temperature outlook:

 

Maximum temperature outlook:

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for March 2018 to May 2018, issued in late February 2018, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the March-May 2018 period.

 

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL APRIL-JUNE 2018:

 

RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED APRIL-JUNE 2018:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Scroll between images below:



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