Weather

Seasonal climate outlook March-May 2019

Bureau of Meteorology, February 28, 2019


Click above to watch a video presentation of the rainfall and water outlook for the next three months

Mar-May 2019 rainfall outlook:

Drier autumn likely for eastern half of Australia

Autumn is likely to be drier than average over Queensland, NSW, Victoria, northern and eastern Tasmania, the southern two-thirds of the NT and eastern SA. In contrast, inland western WA is slightly more likely to be wetter than average.

March is likely to be drier than average across Queensland, NSW, far eastern SA, most of Victoria and the southern two-thirds of the NT. Parts of northern Queensland have a greater than 80pc chance of a drier than average month. Conversely, parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne in WA are likely to be wetter than normal.

Historical outlook accuracy for March to May is moderate for most of the country but low across the southeast and interior of WA, western Tasmania, and near the NSW-Queensland border. See map for details.

Chance of exceeding 100mm during May-May:

March 2019 rainfall outlook:

April 2019 rainfall outlook:

Warmer than average autumn very likely

Warmer than average autumn days and nights are very likely for almost all of Australia. Chances of being warmer than median for both days and nights are greater than 80pc for most of the country. The warm outlooks follow Australia’s warmest December and January on record. However, chances of warmer or cooler autumn nights are roughly equal in some parts of northeast Queensland.

Historical accuracy for March to May maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of northern and eastern Australia, but low across southern and central WA, most of SA, southern Victoria and northeast Tasmania. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for much of southern and western Australia. See map for more details.

Minimum temperature outlook:

 

Maximum temperature outlook:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for November 2018 to January 2018, issued in October 2018, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the October to December 2018 period.

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL NOVEMBER 2018 TO JANUARY 2019:

 

RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED NOVEMBER 2018 TO JANUARY 2019:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Scroll between images below:

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