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Seasonal climate outlook Mar-May 2018

by Beef Central, 28 February 2018

 

Click to watch four minute video presentation of the rainfall and temperature forecast for autumn 2018. 

 

March to May 2018 rainfall outlook:

 

Drier autumn likely for much of central and southeast Australia

The autumn (March to May) rainfall outlook issued this morning shows large parts of central and southeastern Australia are likely to have a drier than average season.

March to May daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except eastern NSW and southeastern Queensland, which have roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average season.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the northeast, central and southern parts of Australia. The northwest and parts of the east have roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average season.

A weak and short-lived La Niña continues to break down, with a return to neutral conditions expected by mid-autumn. In the past, the break down of weak La Niña events has seen drier conditions during autumn.

March 2018 rainfall outlook:

 

April 2018 rainfall outlook:

Warmer autumn days likely for most of Australia

March to May daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, with the exception of eastern NSW and southeastern Queensland, which have roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the northeast, central and southern parts of Australia. The northwest and parts of the east have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average nights.

Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of Australia, except the southern mainland, where accuracy is low to very low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for the northern half of Australia and Tasmania, and low to very over the southern half of the mainland.

 

Minimum temperature outlook:

 

Maximum temperature outlook:

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for November 2017 to January 2018, issued in October 2017, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the November 2017 to January 2018 period.

 

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL NOV 2017-JAN 2018:

 

RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED NOV 2017-JAN 2018:

 

Scroll between images below:



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