Click to watch four minute video presentation of the rainfall and temperature forecast for autumn 2018.
Apr-June 2018 rainfall outlook:
Drier autumn likely for much of central and southeast Australia
The April to June outlook, issued 15 March 2018, shows eastern parts of Victoria and Tasmania, and southeast NSW are likely to be wetter than average. Most of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.
April is slightly more likely to be wetter than average near the east coast, and patchy parts of WA.
Historical outlook accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate over most of Australia, but patchy near the NSW-Queensland border, and across southern WA.
April 2018 rainfall outlook:
May 2018 rainfall outlook:
Warmer than normal in the south, cooler in the north
Days are likely to be warmer than average for parts of southeast Australia, but cooler than average for Cape York Peninsula. Overall, the rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months, but April is likely to be cooler for most of the mainland.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia but cooler than average in the north.
The La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has ended, and ENSO neutral conditions now prevail. With neutral conditions also in the Indian Ocean, there is no strong push towards broadscale wetter or drier conditions for much of the country. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
Minimum temperature outlook:
Maximum temperature outlook:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for December 2017 to February 2018, issued in 30 November 2017, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the December 2017 to February 2018 period.
FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL DEC 2017-FEB 2018:
RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED DEC 2017-FEB 2018:
Scroll between images below: