Click to watch four minute video presentation of the rainfall and temperature forecast for autumn 2018.
Apr-June 2018 rainfall outlook:
Wetter three months likely in tropical north and far southeast Australia
A wetter than average April to June is likely for parts of the tropical north, eastern Victoria, Tasmania, and southeast NSW. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier season are roughly equal.
Historical outlook accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate to high over most of Australia, but low in Tasmania and small patches across the south.
April 2018 rainfall outlook:
May 2018 rainfall outlook:
Warmer than average in parts of the southeast, cooler in the north
April to June days are likely to be warmer than average for the northern Kimberley in WA, southern Victoria and Tasmania, but cooler than average for the Top End of the NT and Cape York Peninsula, according to BOM’s latest Seasonal Climate Outlook released this morning.
The rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia, but cooler than average in most of Queensland and the Top End of the NT.
Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of Australia for April to June. Minimum temperature accuracy is also moderate to high for most of Australia, except parts of southwestern WA, where accuracy is moderate to low.
Minimum temperature outlook:
Maximum temperature outlook:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for December 2017 to February 2018, issued in 30 November 2017, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the December 2017 to February 2018 period.
FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL DEC 2017-FEB 2018:
RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED DEC 2017-FEB 2018:
Scroll between images below: