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Seasonal climate outlook Jun-Aug 2017

by Beef Central, 25 May 2017

 

 

Drier winter likely for most of southern Australia

Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 10.44.16 am

June is likely to be drier than average over southern and central WA, SA and western parts of NSW and Victoria.
Click on image to enlarge

Winter (June to August) rainfall is likely to be below average over the southern half of mainland Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month climate outlook statement released this morning.

While there is a tendency for eastern Tasmania to be wetter than average for winter, model accuracy in eastern Tasmania for this period is low.

The Top End of the NT is likely to have a wetter June to August, but it is now the dry season, and median rainfall at this time of year is very low. Only a small amount of rainfall—which could come from a single rain event—would be needed to exceed the median.

Outlooks are being influenced by warmer than average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler than average eastern Indian Ocean.

Historical outlook accuracy for June to August is moderate over western WA, northeast Australia, and western Tasmania, with low accuracy elsewhere. See map for more detail.

Warmer winter days likely for southern States

Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 10.45.24 am Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 10.45.13 amDaytime temperatures for June to August are likely to be warmer than average for the southern half of Australia and the tip of Cape York Peninsula.

Night-time temperatures for June to August are likely to be warmer for southern WA, southeast SA, eastern NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and the tip of Cape York Peninsula. Most of the country has roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler winter nights.

Outlooks are being influenced by warmer than average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler than average eastern Indian Ocean.

Historical maximum temperature accuracy for winter is moderate to high over most of Australia, except much of WA, and western and southern SA. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for most of Australia.

Comparison – previous outlook versus actual rainfall

Scroll between maps below to compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for February to April 2017, released in mid-January 2017, with actual rain that fell over the February to April 2017 period.



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