Sep-Nov 2019 rainfall outlook:
A drier than normal end to the year likely for most of Australia
A drier than average spring is likely for most of Australia, although the outlook for western Tasmania and southwest WA indicates a wetter than average September.
A drier than average October to December is also likely for most of Australia, meaning the remainder of the year is expected to be drier than average for much of the country.
This means little relief is in sight for those currently experiencing rainfall deficiencies after a dry start to the year for large parts of Australia.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains the main driver of Australia’s climate. A positive IOD is typically associated with below average rainfall for large parts of southern and central Australia in spring.
September 2019 rainfall outlook:
October 2019 rainfall outlook:
October to December rainfall outlook:
Chance of exceeding 50mm during Sep-Nov 2019
Warmer end to the year likely
Spring days are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except Tasmania.
It is likely to be particularly warm during mid-September over parts of central and eastern Australia.
Likewise, October to December is also likely to be warmer than average for Australia except western Tasmania, meaning a warmer than average end to the year is likely.
Warmer than average nights are likely in the north and west during spring, including northern NSW.
Cooler than average nights are likely in the southeast at times during spring, meaning an increased risk of late season frost on cool clear nights in susceptible areas.
In the coming weeks, cooler than average nights are also expected in the tropics.
Minimum temperature outlook:
Maximum temperature outlook:
Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for March to May 2019, issued in February 2019, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the May to July 2019 period.
FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL MAY TO JULY 2019:
RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED MAY to JULY 2019:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
To view full outlook for September to November 2019 on BOM website click here