Dec 2019 – Feb 2020 rainfall outlook:
Drier than average likely, but may start to ease in summer
Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of the country for the remainder of October and November.
However, northwest WA has roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier across most outlook periods, with a slightly increased chance of being wetter than average in December.
The drier outlook continues into December for southern Australia, eastern Queensland, far northeast NSW and much of the NT, with the remainder of the country having roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier than average.
While the outlooks for drier than average conditions ease in the coming months, it should be noted that this won’t necessarily ease the current rainfall deficiencies. Several months of above average rainfall would be needed to see a recovery from current conditions.
January to March 2020 rainfall outlook:
Warmer days likely for the rest of spring and summer
Daytime temperatures for summer are very likely to be warmer than average across Australia.
For the 18 November to 1 December fortnight, temperatures are likely to be above average for much of the country, with most of the mainland expected to be more than 2 degrees warmer than average, and parts of the west and inland east more than 3 degrees above average. However, southern Victoria and Tasmania are likely to be cooler than average.
Nights are likely to be 1 to 2 degrees cooler than average in the southeast for the 18 November to 1 December period, but 1 to 2 degrees warmer in much of WA, the northern NT, and parts of the east coast.
Cooler nights for the southeast and northeast are likely to continue in December for some areas, but December to February nights overall are forecast to be warmer than average almost nation-wide.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here
Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for August to October 2019, issued in July 2019, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the August to October 2019 period.
FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL AUG to OCT 2019:
RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED AUG to OCT 2019:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology