Weather

Seasonal climate outlook – Aug to Oct 2024

Bureau of Meteorology 30/07/2024

 

Above average rainfall likely for parts of eastern Australia; drier than average conditions likely in parts of WA

May to September is the northern Australian dry season when large areas receive less than 25 mm over the season. During this time, only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the average.

August to October

  • Rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for most of Australia, including along the NSW coast.
  • Above average rainfall is likely (60 to 70% chance) for south-west WA and an area extending across most of southern Queensland to NSW (west of the Great Dividing Range), far eastern Victoria and far north-eastern SA.
  • Below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for areas of northern WA and its interior, and south-western Tasmania.
  • During August, rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for much of central, south-eastern and south-western Australia, tending to a more typical range for the south-eastern and eastern coast of the mainland.
  • Compared to the forecast in last week’s issue (18 July) for August and August to October, there is a decreased chance of above average rainfall over most of central and eastern Australia, but an increased chance over south-western WA.

Warmer August to October days and nights likely across most of Australia

August to October

  • Above average maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia; however, being winter, periods of unusually cold weather are still possible.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures1 for most of Australia, particularly for northern Australia and Tasmania.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures1 across Australia, particularly in the north-east, east and south-west.

1 Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of August to October days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view this outlook in more detail on BOM’s website click here

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