Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of Australia

Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for much of eastern Australia, including eastern Tasmania, and much of Queensland, NSW and Victoria; and large parts of SA, WA and the northern NT.

There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall1 for parts of Queensland’s coastal regions and the Cape York Peninsula, southern NSW, eastern parts of Victoria, Tasmania and SA, northern WA and parts of the interior.

The highest chance of above average rainfall for the season is forecast for December, with almost all of Australia likely to experience above average December rainfall.
The chances of above average rainfall for this month have increased in recent weeks.

The chance of above average rainfall generally decreases as the summer progresses. January rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the month across most of
Australia.

Unusually warm nights likely across most of Australia

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for large parts of Australia while above average minimum temperatures are very likely across almost all of Australia.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be within the typical range for the season for large parts of central and eastern NSW, eastern parts of WA, south-west SA, the central NT, and southern Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² across Tasmania and western WA, and parts of south-eastern SA and western Victoria, with up to 3.5 times the normal chance.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² across Australia, particularly in the north and large areas in the east and west of the continent, where the likelihood is more than 4 times the normal chance.
• For December alone, maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below average for eastern WA, most of the NT and parts of inland Queensland, and likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average for western WA and parts of south-east Australia; elsewhere maximum temperatures are likely to be in the typical range for the season.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low maximum temperature³ for the Pilbara and Kimberley districts in WA in December, up to 3.5 times the normal chance.

1Unusually high rainfall is defined as the highest 20% of December to February rainfall observations from 1981 to 2018.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of December to February days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

³ Unusually low maximum temperatures are those in the coolest 20% of December day temperatures between 1981 and 2018.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view this outlook in more detail on BOM’s website click here