August to October 2020 rainfall outlook

A wetter August to October for much of Australia

Above map: Rainfall outlook for August 2020

The fortnight of 3 to 16 August is likely to be wetter than average for much of Australia, although chances of a wetter or drier than average fortnight are close to equal across most of the western half of WA, the far northern tropics, and much of Tasmania.

The August to October period is likely to be wetter than average, with a greater than 65% chance over most of the eastern two thirds of Australia and greater than 75% chance over much of south-west Queensland, south-east NT, western NSW, and inland SA.

The northern Australian dry season spans May through September. Tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals during the dry season, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.

Above map: Rainfall outlook for September 2020

‘First look’ September to November 2020 rainfall outlook:

Warmer nights for most of Australia

Daytime temperatures for the fortnight 3 to 16 August are likely to be warmer than average for most of northern and eastern Australia, as well as in southwestern WA; up to 2 degrees warmer than usual in the north and east. Elsewhere, temperatures are more likely to be close to average.

For 3 to 16 August, nights are likely to be warmer for most of Australia; with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees warmer than average over much of northern NSW, Queensland, and the NT.
Days during August to October are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (greater than 80% chance for most of the tropics, Tasmania, much of Victoria and eastern NSW); however, much of the South West Land Division in WA has close to equal chances of warmer or cooler than average days.

Night-time temperatures for August to October are very likely to be warmer than average for Australia (greater than 80% chance in most areas), although chances are close to equal for much of south-west WA.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here

Previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for May to July 2020, issued 30 April 2020, with actual rainfall recorded over the May to July 2020 period.

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL MAY to JULY 2020:

ACTUAL RAINFALL RECORDED MAY to JULY 2020:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology