April is likely to be drier than average across northern Australia, suggesting a dry end to the northern wet season, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three monthly climate outlook statement released today.
Central to eastern Victoria and central Queensland are also likely to have a drier than average April.
April to June rainfall is more likely to be above average across the Gascoyne region in WA, throughout SA, extending into NSW and the far western corners of Queensland and Victoria. The far northern parts of Australia are more likely to have a drier than average three months.
The current outlook reflects a combination of a weakening El Niño, very warm Indian Ocean temperatures and warm sea surface temperatures around much of the Australian coast.
Historical outlook accuracy for April to June is generally moderate to high over most of Australia, but low in Tasmania and small patches across the south. See map for more detail.
High chances of a warmer three months for Australia
April daytime and night-time temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia.
Warmer than normal days are likely for much of Australia for the April to June period, except for parts of the southern interior and western WA.
Nights are strongly favoured to be warmer than average across the country, with a greater than 80% (or eight in ten) chance of warmer nights for most of Australia for the April to June period.
The current outlook reflects a combination of very warm Indian Ocean temperatures, a weakening El Niño, and warm sea surface temperatures surrounding much of Australia.
Historical maximum temperature accuracy for April to June is moderate to high over most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is also moderate to high for most of the country, except parts of southwestern WA, where accuracy is moderate to low.