Dry winter likely for southwest Australia

For most of the country there is no strong indication that winter will be particularly wetter or drier than average – the likelihood of exceeding median rainfall is near 50 percent – according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s “first look” rainfall forecast for June throught to August, released this morning.

The exceptions are in western WA, where a drier season is more likely and in the southeast, where wetter than average conditions are favoured.

For June, inland Victoria and NSW have a moderate chance of a dry start to winter, as does western WA.

Historical outlook accuracy for winter is moderate to high over most of the NT, Queensland, northern NSW, western Tasmania and western WA. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low. See map for more detail.

Warmer than average winter likely in the south

Chances of above average minimum temperature. Click to enlarge

Chances of above average maximum temperature

Both days and nights are likely to be warmer than average in the south.

In Queensland, there is a moderate chance that nights will be cooler than average.

Historical accuracy for winter maximum temperatures is moderate to high for most of the country except for inland sub-tropical WA and central and western SA where accuracy is low to very low. Minimum temperature accuracy during winter is generally moderate to high in most regions, apart from western NSW, southwest Queensland and the NT’s Top End where accuracy is low.

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