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‘First look’ climate outlook released for Nov 18-Jan 19

by Beef Central, 11 October 2018

First look November 2018 to January 2019 rainfall outlook

 

A drier three months likely for much of eastern half of Australia

First look November 2018 rainfall outlook

November to January is likely to be drier than average for large parts of eastern Australia. Specifically, most of Queensland, eastern SA, Tasmania, Victoria, and southern and western NSW are likely to have a drier than average three months.

November is likely to be drier than average for the eastern two-thirds of Australia. However, areas to the east of the Great Dividing Range in NSW have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.

First look December 2018 rainfall outlook

Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia have been very dry and warm since the start of the year. The

November to January outlook indicates areas currently affected by drought are less likely to see significant respite in the coming three months.

Historical outlook accuracy for November to January is moderate over northern and western WA, northern Tasmania, most of Victoria, western and central NSW, most of Queensland, and scattered parts of the NT and SA. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low. See map for more detail.

Chances of rainfall over 100mm November 2018-January 2019

High chances of a warmer three months for Australia

 

The above average daytime temperatures observed across Australia so far in 2018 are likely to continue into early 2019.
November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average across Australia. Chances of a warmer three months are greater than 80% over most of the mainland.
Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of southeast WA, southern SA and western Victoria, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal.

Historical accuracy for November to January maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia, but low in northern interior WA and the southern NT. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for the southern half of Australia extending up into northern WA, the Top End of the NT and southern and far northern Queensland. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low. See maps for more detail.

OUTLOOK VIDEO:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology



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