‘First look’ climate outlook for Jun-Aug 2019

Bureau of Meteorology, 16/05/2019

Drier winter for northern and eastern Australia

Winter is likely to be drier than average for much of Queensland, NSW, Victoria, southeast SA, northern Tasmania, the NT, and northern and far southwest WA. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average winter.

Historical outlook accuracy for winter is moderate for most of WA, Central Australia, western and southern Queensland extending into eastern NSW, western and central Victoria, and Tasmania. See map for details.

Warmer winter days likely

Warmer than average days are likely for most of Australia during winter, except for the far north of Queensland. For western and eastern parts of Australia, the chances of being warmer than average are very high; greater than 80 percent.

Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for WA, the northern NT, parts of Queensland, eastern NSW and most of Victoria and Tasmania. Chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal across central Australia, SA, and inland southeast Australia.

Regardless of the outlook for night-time temperatures, dry soils and the forecast for more cloud-free nights is likely to increase the risk of frost in susceptible areas.

Historical accuracy for June to August maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia, except the central NT, southern Queensland and northeast NSW, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate across much of northern and eastern Australia, but patchy in WA, and low for inland southeast Australia.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology


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