THE record momentum being seen in the US imported beef trimmings market is now pulling other whole muscle cuts into the grind.

Beef Central has been told that large, lean secondary primals like rounds, knuckles, and outside flats are being diverted into ground beef programs by some big grinders, based on trimmings price rises.

“It happens on odd occasions, especially when trimmings prices rise sharply, getting ahead of the general cuts market,” a large export beef trader told Beef Central.

“If a cow point-end brisket or flat is even 20c/kg less than the equivalent trimmings price, it’s simple math to divert into into the trimmings channel. But typically, that then shorts the market on point-end briskets or flats, and their price rises relatively to trimmings again.”

“It ebbs and flows – there is no standard rule, but certainly the trimmings market at present has a firm undertow to it, which is quite unusual at this time of year,” the meat trader said.

February demand unusually strong

Normally January-February was ‘quietish’ in the US market for imported trimmings, he said.

“It’s freezing cold in the US at present, and February normally means low demand for hamburger beef, because it will be months until its warm enough for consumers to pull out the BBQ, or start eating out more,” he said.

“But this year, it’s different – demand has remained particularly strong, and that’s all got to do with the slow-down in domestic US production due to the herd decline, and low clow slaughter.”

Peak demand for grinding beef in the US is normally Memorial Day holiday at the start of northern hemisphere summer in May, but remains unusually strong at present, due to lack of US domestic supply.

Australian lean 90CL cow trimmings were trading into the US last week at above A$10.60/kg, close to the record high seen a week or two before. In US currency terms, last week’s quote was US$3.02/lb – again close to record highs seen in 2022 (COVID impact) and 2014, when the US ran out of beef during herd rebuilding after drought.

Source: MLA. Click on image for a larger view

The graph published at left shows the current 2025 prices for January-February (top left, in black), compared with last year (yellow) and 2023 (grey). This time last year, the price was around 835c/kg, and the year before that, 705c/kg. The current extreme price spike really started to gain traction during December last year (yellow line, top right).

So is there further upside for Australian imported trimmings into the US, heading into the peak demand period from May?

“If it’s at the level it is now (mid February), its hard not to anticipate further rises in coming months,” another export beef trader told Beef Central.

“There’s got to be some upside. Our imported frozen trimmings are now US305c/lb – they have only very rarely been above 300c in the past. And buying for the high-demand Memorial Day (May period) normally means buying forward during February, for March production, April shipping and arriving in US East or West Coast ports from the first week of May.”

Big US ground beef end-users like burger chain McDonald’s – which took 80,000t of Australian ground beef in 2023 for the company’s US and Australian operations (see earlier story) are under increasing raw material price pressure over the past three months.

Domestic market trimmings prices also being ‘dragged along’

Offshore demand for Australian trimmings as US production falls is also impacting the Australian domestic wholesale market.

A large domestic wholesaler with business across NSW, Queensland and Victoria told Beef Central yesterday that 85CL fresh trimmings were currently making anywhere from $8.50 to $10/kg at wholesale level.

“They’ve basically responded to the 90CL export price spike, minus shipping freight cost,” he said.

“There’s currently a big spread in price, because if a Woolworths or a Coles comes into the market wanting an extra 50 tonnes of trimmings one week, it pressures the availability, and the price could easily be $10/kg.

“The two big retailers can’t say no to a customer, and are prepared to push the market higher to secure supply for a special, or whatever,” he said.

At other times when supermarket buyers were less active, domestic trimmings could still be had for $8.50-$9/kg in places. As a comparison, domestic 85CL trimmings back in July 2023 were being quoted in a Beef Central article at $7-$7.25/kg fresh, and as little as $6.50 for frozen 85s.

“But I can’t see supply getting any better this side of Easter,” another large wholesaler said.

“Labour is still clearly a limiting factor in processing in some states – it could be some time before the industry gets to the 150,000-155,000 head per week figure that’s being projected for this year. While ever that’s the case, it’s putting further pressure on trimmings prices – both domestic and export.”

Strong exports leaving holes in domestic market

He said part of the reason why secondary primal cuts were being pushed into grinding beef was a shortfall in supply over demand.

‘A lot of beef that otherwise might find its way into the domestic trade is being exported at present. January saw record in-month beef exports for Australia, and that’s left some holes in domestic market segments like trimmings. Some of that is being filled by secondary cuts like knuckles and outside flats, being ground.”

On top of that, domestic consumer demand was currently ‘quite solid’ for this time of year, despite cautionary spending by consumers, and the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff antics.

Outside flats that were trading at $7.40-$7.50/kg last year are now making $9/kg in the domestic wholesale trade. Other secondary cuts that could end up in the grind included knuckles, currently worth $11/kg on an A-cipher and up to $12.80/kg on grainfed, and cap-off topsides $12.50/kg, as high as they have ever been.