Trade

September beef exports maintain recent momentum, hitting 114,000t

Jon Condon 03/10/2024

 

AUSTRALIA’S September monthly beef exports continued at a rapid pace, hitting 114,046 tonnes.

Volume was down 6pc on the previous month (both July and August were unusually high, for a variety of reasons), but September was 16pc higher than the same time last year.

For the January-September year to date, Australian export tonnage to all markets has reached 967,252t, up 25pc on same period last year.

With only three months of the year left, our beef exports remain on track to deliver one of, if not the largest annual volume result on record.

Meat & Livestock Australia’s September projections update anticipated total export volume for 2024 to reach 1.359 million tonnes. If it’s achieved, it would surpass the recent high-point of 1.229mt achieved during the drought turnoff-fuelled 2019 year, and the previous 2014 drought year when exports hit a record 1.294mt.

An early onset of wet weather heading into summer would be one of the only barriers to a new record export volume being set this year, trade participants say, with weekly slaughter remaining consistently around the 140,000 head number (NLRS reported national slaughter) since the end of May.

Most major export customer destinations were slightly down in volume in September, compared with the extremely busy July-August numbers.

The United States continues to dominate Australian beef exports this year, accounting for 37,218t last month. That figure was down 9pc on August volume, but 52pc higher than September last year, before US customers really started to bid Australian product away from other markets.

One of the interesting points was the skewing in trade towards US east coast ports in September, as importers started to anticipate the waterside workers’ strike that started yesterday (see earlier report).

East coast importers evidently sought to expand imported volumes in cold storage in September, to create some stockpile in an attempt to ride-out the indefinite strike. It meant that US east coast ports alone, accounted for 24pc of all Australian beef exports in September.

Unless the strike is lifted in the next few days, it’s likely that US west coast ports will account for a much higher percentage of Australian exports for October.

Year-to-date, the US has taken a little over 272,000t of Australian beef, with the chilled component continuing to expand. That number was up an incredible 67pc on last year, as US domestic beef supply starts to be challenged.

The next 12 months is only likely to see US export market share rise further, as the impact of US drought herd reduction and slow rate of herd rebuilding take full effect. Consumer demand for beef remains surprisingly high, despite rising cost of living pressures, commentators have said recently.

Second largest export market Japan took 17,100t of Australian beef last month, down 13pc on August numbers but still 5pc higher, year-on-year.

Calendar year to date trade to Japan has reached almost 197,000t, up 28pc on last year, displacing lower levels of US exports into Japan.

Exports to China last month lifted to 16,161t, up 7pc on the previous month and the second highest monthly volume this year, following July.

Calendar year to date, China has now taken 137,353t of Australian beef, 90pc of which was in frozen form. That volume is back 10pc on the same nine-month period last year, mostly due to slowing in the Chinese economy in 2024.

Part of the reason for the rise in China trade last month was the probability that China’s Safeguard tariff on Australian beef would trigger, forcing importers to pay an additional 12pc tariff on our product until the end of the calendar year. The tariff issue was discussed in this earlier article.

The Safeguard mechanism was negotiated back in 2015 as part of the China Australia Free Trade Agreement, and has triggered four times since then as exports have dramatically expanded. Nine years ago when the FTA agreement was struck, it was never anticipated that Australia’s beef exports into China would take off as they have. Australia first triggered the quota limit in 2018, again in 2019 and 2020, and most recently in late 2023.

South Korea continues to perform strongly, taking 15,843t of Australian beef last month, down 4pc on the same time last year. Nine-month trade has surpassed 143.000t, about 4pc higher than in 2023.

Among smaller and emerging markets, Indonesia’s boxed beef import performance has been a highlight in 2024. Our nearest neighbour took 8512t of mostly frozen Australian product in September, up 41pc on last year, while the calendar year to date tally has reached 57,500t, up 10pc on 2023.

Canada has been one of the surprise packets for Australia’s beef exports in 2024, caused in part by large outflows of Candian cattle and beef into the US. September exports to Canada reached almost 3200t, up 30pc on August. Year to date volume is now at 20,555t, up 50pc on last year.

Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam were next largest on the list for September, at 2316t, 1673t and 1653t respectively. The three were up 12pc, 56pc and 35pc on the same time last year.

 

 

 

 

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