DESPITE some serious logistical challenges caused by Cyclone Alfred, Australian beef exports held up remarkably well during March.

Total export shipments to all markets last month reached 112,423 tonnes, only 5000t less than February, and 6000t higher than March last year.

The Port of Brisbane – by far the largest loading port for Australian beef exports – was closed for a week up to 10 March because of the Cyclone, but evidently stevedores caught up quickly with the backlog once the facility re-opened.

Another surprise in March export activity was the relatively small impact seen on trade into the United States. Anecdotally, Australian export meat traders were reporting lack of appetite among US customers to purchase beef during the back half of March, because of uncertainty surrounding the size of US import tariffs on Australian (and other imported) beef consignments to the US after 2 April.

As it turned out, Australia’s March shipments to the US remained high, at 32,300t. That’s only 2800t or 8pc lower than February. Forward purchasing may have been a factor. Last month was more than 5700t or 21pc higher than exports to the US in March last year, reflecting the big surge in trade currently being seen during the US domestic herd collapsing to 70-year lows following drought.

April will tell story about tariff impact

The big question now is whether April trade patterns will reflect the new 10pc tariff on Aussie beef exports to the US, or whether more export product finds its way into markets like China, Japan and Korea as a result. Major export competitor Brazil now faces an even larger US tariff burden, with tariffs for the remainder of the year into the US of 36.5pc (26.5pc out-of-quota tariff plus the new 10pc retaliatory tariff).

Here’s just a few questions that this month’s shipments will provide answers to, in the new tariff era:

• Will US appetite for Australian beef decline with the extra 10pc tariff burden?
• Will other customer countries be more competitive for Australian beef?
• Does Australia pick up trade into the US, at Brazil’s expense, given the tariff difference?
• Will China’s new 34pc tariff imposed on US beef imports have a bearing on trade out of Australia?

First quarter stronger

The completion of March trade provides a full first quarter export performance benchmark. Total beef export trade for the quarter reached  310,974t, more than 35,000t or 13pc higher than the same period last year, and one of the largest first-quarter shipment levels on record.

Beef trade into other export customer countries apart from the US also held up well last month.

Trade into China remained solid, despite local economy difficulties. Tonnage last month reached 20,263t, only 1100t or 5pc short of February numbers, and 23pc higher than March last year. Year-to-date, China has now taken 56,544t, up 22pc on the first quarter last year.  That’s the largest first quarter volume to China ever seen, just edging out 2020.

Shipments to Japan last month reached 18,718t, down 1400t or 7pc on February, and 10pc behind March last year. The first-quarter total has reached 54,369t, down 11pc on the same three-month period last year.

South Korea remained a sold performer in March, taking 16,324t of Australian beef, down 8pc on February, but still 12pc better than March last year. Q1 volume reached 44,699t, up about 4200t or 10pc, partly due to declining supply out of the US.

Among secondary and emerging markets, results in March were mixed.

Indonesia continued its recent strong buying trend, taking another 5086t, much the same as February, but well down on the massive +10,000t seen this time last year. Year-to-date trade has reached 10,880t, compared with 13,400t a year ago.

The Middle East region was reasonably quiet at 3112t in March, slightly better than February but similar to this time last year. Year-to-date trade is at 8043t, down 3pc  on last year.

Despite the Federal Government’s recent proclamation that “beef trade into the UK is up 500pc since the Free Trade Agreement was struck”, that statement ignores the fact that that was off an extremely low base, and trade remains a fraction of what it once was. March volume reached just 677t, down 9pc on February, but at least up 33pc from dismal trade in March last year. First quarter exports to the UK sat at just 1891t.

Canada has been a growth market for Australian export beef over the past year, accounting for 2853t in March, down 5pc on February, but slightly higher than March last year. First quarter numbers have reached 7100t, but latest tariff impacts for live Canadian cattle and beef exported to the US may have some impact on future trade out of Australia.

In the absence of any Free Trade Agreement, beef trade into the European Union reached 1269t last month, down marginally from February.