AUSTRALIA’S booming beef exports this year have already hit an all time calendar year record high, reaching 1.398 million tonnes by the end of November – up 15 percent on the same 11-month period last year.

The result is all the more remarkable because it was achieved with a month’s trading still to be completed before the end of the calendar year.

The previous calendar year volume record of 1.34 million was set last year, but it has been apparent for some months that the record was likely to be smashed in 2025. Barring some calamitous weather event between now and Christmas, total 2025 Australian beef exports will finish well above 1.5 million tonnes.

November’s in-month shipments to all export markets reached 131,700t – up 11pc on a year ago – and the fifth biggest shipment month on record.

Strong cattle prices – especially as the year has progressed – combined with a national herd at the upper end of historical numbers at 30.4 million head has helped underpin the record-setting trade year.

DAFF monthly export data for November and the year-to-date issued this morning show just how substantial trade this years been, with a number of new records set.

Grainfed portion booms

Grainfed exports in the first 11 months have also hit a new calendar year record at 403,860t, up 19pc on last year. Last calendar year (including December trade) saw grainfed exports at 375,000t.

However the growth in grainfed exports has not come at the expense of grassfed, as it did back in 2020-2021. Grainfed ratio this year has been almost 29pc of total beef trade. Back in the 2019-20 period grainfed beef only accounted for 19-20pc of total trade, but lower than 2021-22 when herd rebuilding was in full swing.

November’s grainfed shipments alone reached 38,393t, up 18pc on the same period last year, and reflecting the big growth in lotfeeding operations seen in the past 12 months.

While trade to most significant export markets has grown this year in the absence of export competition from the United States and unusual tariff movements, trade into the US remains the export story of the year.

Chilled and frozen volume to US East and West Coast ports this year has already reached 412,068t, up 17pc on the same period last year. November volume hit 38,393t, still well behind the extraordinary 43,000t shipped in July, and 45,000 in October last year – but still historically high.

That trend has been driven hard by the big declines being seen in US beef production, as the national herd sinks to 70 year lows, and shows little sign yet of recovery.

Other key markets have also grown substantially this year, with volume to Greater China for the first 11 months reaching 279,534t, up 37pc on the same 11-month period last year. November trade to China hit 22,759t, up 14pc on last year. The all time calendar year record to Greater China is still some way off, having reached 333,000t in 2019, when the country was in the middle of its African Swine Fever outbreak, when millions of pigs were liquidated.

Trade into South Korea is also heading towards an annual volume record this year, having reached 200,213t for the 11 months to the end of November, and 17,400t for the month just passed.

Our previous calendar year record into Korea sits at 200,546t, meaning it will be exceeded at some time in coming days. The void left by lower US exports to Korea this year, especially for favour cuts like bone-in shortrib and shortplate – has been occupied to some extent by larger Australian exports.

Trade into Japan for the year to date has reached 234,747t, up 2pc on last year, while November shipments were 42pc higher, year-on-year at 24,887t. Volume into Japan is still well short of the records set back in above 340,000t.

Another potential record in 2026?

With a favourable seasonal outlook ahead and a cattle inventory sitting at high levels, next year is already shaping up as another potential export record.

A preliminary scenario prepared this week by US market analyst Len Steiner suggests US beef imports from all suppliers could rise almost 9pc from the record volume imported in 2025. Within that, he suggests that Australian exports to the US next year might grow by another 5pc or 33,000t (carcase weight equivalent)  to around 1.521 billion pounds.

“Even as overseas suppliers enjoy the lower tariff burden into the US in the near term, the need to stay competitive and maximise the volume they can sell to North America means they may end up sharing some of that tariff windfall with US buyers,” Mr Steiner said.

“That would result in lower imported beef prices in the US and a larger spread to domestic beef prices. We expect US beef imports to increase in 2026 as a result,” he said.

“But imported beef will need to stay competitive with domestic, especially when it comes to cuts. Domestic grinders may have extensive experience with imports and, in some cases, even prefer them. But when it comes to cuts, imports present challenges in terms of yields, product consistency, and flavor profile. In this environment, US buyers are likely to stay cautious as to what they bid and for what time period,” he said.

• We’ll circle back with more context around the latest export figures tomorrow or Friday.