Indonesian Ramadan passes with flat live cattle prices; Consumer resistance forces some Vietnamese abattoirs to close; Shanghai prices rising despite the ongoing northern drought – THIS REPORT NOW ALSO TRANSLATED TO BAHASA – click for more details
Bulan Ramadan berlalu, harga sapi hidup di Indonesia tetap stabil; Konsumen resistan, sejumlah rumah potong hewan di Vietnam terpaksa tutup; Kenaikan harga di Shanghai meski kekeringan terus melanda wilayah utara.
Weak demand from both Indonesia and Vietnam has not had the expected affect on the northern Australian prices which have in fact risen over May, with the usual May/June supply flush not being seen this year, and favourable seasons meaning producers are in no rush to offload stock.
Weak demand from both Indonesia and Vietnam must soon start to put serious downward pressure on northern Australian feeder prices, Dr Ross Ainsworth writes in this week’s South East Asia market, exclusive to Beef Central readers.
Weak demand is increasing the pressure on Indonesian lot feeders with some discounting of slaughter cattle during March to as low as Rp39,500.
High-level talks to prevent possible trade repercussions for Australia’s cattle export industry to Vietnam in response to Australia’s suspension of Vietnamese prawn imports continue, the NTCA conference in Darwin was told last Friday.
There appears to be a general sentiment that the “new” supply and demand equation which includes Indian beef has reached a point where the instability caused by Indian supply has now been factored into the market (after capturing about 50pc of the business) and is no longer a disrupter to current day to day trading.
One of the most interesting observations for January is the discovery of sales of low-priced frozen beef from Spain in Java, which has been selling strongly since arriving in December 2016.
A reduction in annual export sales for 2017 of about 50 percent is starting to sound more like a fair estimate in light of the impact Indian buffalo meat is having on slaughter cattle demand in Indonesia, writes Dr Ross Ainsworth.
It will be interesting to watch the tug of war between raw supply and demand and the wishes of the Government of Indonesia as feedlot supplies gradually dry up towards the end of December.