HOT, dry weather across large parts of Eastern Australia heading deeper into November is starting to impact supply and demand patterns for slaughter cattle across the country.

There’s a growing perception among eastern states processors that big runs of western and northern cattle have now more or less run their race for the 2024 slaughter season, and the last six or seven weeks of the production year will be reliant on smaller ‘odds and ends’ consignments.

Grain harvest commitments have interrupted cattle supply in some areas, shortening up supply for some exporters a little this week.

For the first time in at least six months there was little evidence of southern processors buying cattle out of Roma store sale this morning, suggesting many are now happy to look for supply closer to home.

October beef export statistics will be released some time this week, and its widely anticipated that a new monthly volume record will be set, on the back of rising national slaughter over the past four to six weeks.

Excluding week 41 (ending October 11, which was impacted by public holidays), the beef processing industry has averaged more than 142,300 head for the four weeks of October – the highest four-week production level seen since December 2019, when the industry was still furiously killing cattle due to drought. The industry processed an additional 65,000 head over the four weeks to the end of October, compared with the same period last year.

Barring weather disruptions, it’s setting up the final quarter of 2024 as a the strongest beef production period since the fourth quarter of 2019. In addition, staffing levels at some plants have gradually crept higher as the year has progressed, typified by JBS extending its kill at Dinmore, near Brisbane into a second shift, and planning to get back to full working capacity by January next year.

The weekly seven-day national slaughter statistics have been delayed a little this week due to today’s Melbourne Cup Day holiday in Victoria, but its likely that the week ended last Friday will again challenge the 2024 weekly slaughter record set a week earlier, at 145,337 head.

Direct consignment prices mostly steady

There’s been little evidence of changes to direct consignment offer prices across eastern and southern Australia over the past seven days, suggesting demand and supply are in reasonable equilibrium.

Processors say they are generally well covered for slaughter stock requirements now until the third week of November. Some Central Queensland plants are already heavily booked, saying they have only a week or so left in kill spaces before 2024 season closures around December 14 or 21.

Reflecting current high throughput and strong spring cattle supply, there’s been no change in major Queensland slaughter grid offers this week, and only minor adjustments to offers in some southern states, where supply has improved through the past month of warmer weather.

In southern Queensland, over-the-hooks grids from competitive export processors are this morning showing 600-610c/kg for four-tooth steer with implant, and cows 530-540c/kg. Some plants in the region appear a little better placed than others for rosters into November.

Central Queensland rates are mostly 10c behind those numbers.

In eastern parts of South Australia, grids seen this morning are showing 610c/kg on grass four tooth ox and 550c/kg on heavy cows, following some 20c/kg reductions a fortnight ago.

After drops of 10-20c/kg in offers for both grass steers and cows a fortnight ago, some processors in southern regions of NSW have left grids untouched again this week, with cows currently at 510c/kg and four tooth grass export steer no HGP on 590c.

Saleyards channel

Weather again exerted an influence on saleyards slaughter cattle trading early this week.

Gunnedah sale yarded 3470 head this morning, up around 1100 on last week. The onset of warmer weather and heading into some very hot dry days saw numbers increase significantly. Young cattle were plentiful and there were some high quality heavy cows penned. Overall the quality and condition of the offering was good, but there were some plainer quality cattle penned also. Export cattle sold to cheaper trends with both heavy grown steers and heifers adversely affected. There was some quality related price improvement on an otherwise cheaper trend through the cow market.

Wodonga sale this morning yarded 950, similar to last week. A bigger field of export buyers was in attendance. Prices fluctuated with buyers unwilling to push the market, this was most notable from domestic processors. In the export market  competition was steady for bullocks while steers 500-600kg struggled to find buyers. Heavy steers sold 17c cheaper to average 327c/kg. Bullocks sold to the usual buyers  to average 356c. The smaller offering of cows sold to a bigger field of buyers and prices strong for big heavy cows to average 294c/kg. It was a slightly softer market for leaner grades under 520kg, with prices slipping 4c/kg. D3 cows sold from 244c to 283c/kg.

Wagga sale yesterday yarded 5250, up about 1150 on last week. As the spring season unfolds with increasingly dry conditions across the supply area, there was a notable uptick in numbers. The overall quality was mostly secondary however, there were some outstanding heavy export steers and heifers. In the export market, buyer activity was strong despite not all buyers operating. However prices remained solid across the board. Heavy steers were unchanged, selling from 290-350c. Bullocks sold to long bidding duels at times, with prices increasing by 2c, the bulk ranging from 305-386c/kg. The cow market met most of the buying group, with heavy cows unchanged at 280-301c. Additionally, the middle run of cows weighing under 520kg has seen a slight improvement averaging 267c/kg.

A preliminary report from Roma store sale this morning reported a yarding of 6300, up about 10pcm on last week. All the regular processors, lotfeedeeders and backgrounders were present and active.  At the time of this interim report the better lines sold to a dearer trend. Yearling steers over 480kg made to 362c/kg, while oats fattened bullocks over 600kg sold from 300-336c/kg. Full Roma report tomorrow.