Three-month outlook mixed for north and south

Beef Central, 24/04/2012

Click on images below article to view maps in larger format.Large parts of northern and eastern Australia are more likely to have a wetter than normal season over the next three months, while south-eastern Australia is more likely to have a drier season, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s three month outlook released today.

The bureau said its outlook for May to July is strongly influenced by warmer than normal waters in the Indian Ocean.

The chances of receiving above median rainfall for May to July are above 60pc over the Kimberley, most of the Northern Territory, the southern two-thirds of Queensland and northeast NSW.

The chances exceed 75pc over the far northeast of NSW and southeast of Queensland.

“These odds mean that for every 10 years with similar ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight years would be expected to be wetter than average over these areas, while about two to four years would be expected to be drier during the May to July period,” the Bureau said.

“It should be noted that rainfall is commonly low over much of the northern NT at this time of the year and contributes only a small fraction to the annual total.”
In contrast, the chances of receiving above normal rainfall are between 25pc and 40pc over southeast SA, western and central Victoria, and Tasmania.

“In other words, the chances of below normal rainfall is between 60 and 75pc in these areas.”

Over the rest of the country, the chances of a drier or wetter May to July are roughly equal.

The Bureau also confirmed that the 2011-12 La Nina event has ended, with all key indicators now at neutral levels.

It said it survey of long-term climate models from around the world indicate that neutral conditions are likely to continue over the coming months, with some – but not all – suggesting El Nino conditions may develop during the winter or spring.

The national temperature outlook for May to July suggests that warmer days will be more likely over the south of the country, cooler days will be more likely over southeast Queensland and central Australia, and warmer nights will be more likely over Queensland, NSW and western to central WA.


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