The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month seasonal outlook released this morning points to a drier-than-average summer for north eastern Australia, and a wetter than normal season for Tasmania and eastern parts of the Gascoyne and Pilbara in WA.
The chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are rated as being roughly equal over the remainder of the country.
Bureau modeling rates the chances of exceeding median rainfall during summer at 30-40pc for eastern Queensland, northeast NSW, and the eastern Top End of the NT.
“In other words, the chances of below average rainfall are 60 to 70pc over these areas,” the Bureau said.
“So, for every ten summer outlooks with similar odds to these, about three or four of them would result in above-average rainfall over these areas, while about six or seven would be below average.”
Conversely, the chance of exceeding the median rainfall is considered greater than 60pc over Tasmania, and the eastern regions of the Pilbara and Gascoyne in WA.
The chance of receiving a wetter or drier than normal summer period is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50pc) over the remainder of the country.
The Bureau says the models it draws upon suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the Australian summer.
With major climate influences likely to remain neutral (and hence have lesser impact upon Australia), secondary influences, such as the pattern of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures around the Australian continent are tending to drive the Australian climate.
In terms of forecast temperatures, the Bureau says warmer days are more likely over most of eastern Australia and the Top End of the NT, and cooler days are more likely in southwest WA.
Warmer nighttime temperatures are more likely over Queensland, the Top End of the NT, the northeast half of NSW, northwest coastal WA, and Tasmania.