Prospects for a wetter than average season have improved slightly across Australia in the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month seasonal climate outlook issued this morning.
The forecast suggests that the chances of a wetter or drier than normal season for the next three months are roughly equal over Australia.
For the February to April period, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall ranges from 40 to 60pc over much of the continent.
This means there is not a strong tendency for either a wetter or drier February to April period for most locations, but represents an improvement in the odds of a wetter season compared to the most recent outlook released one month ago.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – ie not favouring either an El Nino or La Nina pattern – and are likely to remain that way at least for the next three months.
Ocean temperatures are generally expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average, while the Indian Ocean Dipole is considered too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate during the months through to April.
Meanwhile the national temperature outlook for the next three months suggests that the chances of warmer or cooler days and nights will be roughly equal over most of Australia.
Warmer days are more likely over Tasmania, and the far southeast mainland and warmer nights are more likely in Tasmania, eastern Victoria, and western and southern coastlines of WA.