IF the buzz around the SIAL Food Trade Show being staged in Shanghai this morning was anything to go by, Aussie beef is in for a busy time through the middle and later stages of 2025.

Momentum has grown in Australian beef trade into China this year with calendar year to April figures up 27 percent on last year, at 78,000 tonnes.

Tariff and registration access challenges for US exporters since early April have only sharpened Chinese customer interest in Aussie beef and lamb this year.

With more than 5000 exhibitors from 75 countries, SIAL Shanghai is among the world’s largest food trade shows. The Australian red meat presence, covering beef, lamb and goatmeat is noticeably larger this year. Most of the processor and non-packer exporters were clustered around a Meat & Livestock Australia display and meeting room area, while others displayed in other parts of the vast exhibition space, aligning with their local importers and distributors.

This week’s event was always going to carry heightened importance for Australian beef, with major chilled competitor the US currently facing 32pc tariffs on imports into China under the chaotic Trump tariff regime, and close to 400 US beef exporters still shut out of the market due to a re-registration issue with Chinese authorities.

SIAL re-set for meat market values

Meat trade commentary this past week suggested that Chinese buyers were holding off placing major orders for Australian and New Zealand beef last week, preferring to wait for the SIAL trade fair to start yesterday to gauge clearer market direction and place orders for the third quarter.

Click on image for a larger view

As a result buying sentiment for Australian beef last week was described as ‘sluggish’, with a wider bid-offer gap emerging until SIAL got underway.

“Many Chinese buyers also noted the softening in Brazilian beef value, a key proxy for broader Chinese market sentiment and moved to the sidelines, awaiting clearer pricing signals before committing to new orders,” one market reporting service observed.

One interesting observation made by a first-time visitor to SIAL Shanghai was how young many of the Chinese customers were.

“There are guys who might just be 30 years old, who are buying 30 containers of Australian beef a month,” he said. “It’s a new world, you don’t see that so much in Europe, the US or elsewhere.”

Australian personnel attending SIAL this morning noted elevated interest in better quality chilled grainfed out of Australia, in the wake of declining supply out of the US.

Some of the bigger ones, mostly retail-focussed, were looking for 200-300 tonnes of chilled beef per month, one trader said. Some were in fact historically Australian customers, but simply wanted more volume.

‘Cautious enthusiasm’

Meat & Livestock Australia’s general manager of international markets Andrew Cox said 22 Australian exporters were represented in the MLA precinct, with plenty of others located elsewhere, choosing to align with their local distributors’ displays.

Australian goatmeat had a presence for the first time, with Queensland’s Western Meat Exporters in attendance. China was Australia’s third largest goatmeat market last year, taking 5100 tonnes. Trading dynamics are expected to support future growth in the trade.

MLA’s SIAL event function held last night booked out within 24 hours of going public, Mr Cox said.

When asked to describe the mood at the event, he used the term “cautious enthusiasm.”

“It takes a little time for exporters and importers to get together, in responding to changing demand and supply signals,” he said.

“Grainfed is very much on trend. For an immediate period after US tariffs were applied last month, tariff levels on US beef were completely prohibitive. They are still quite high (32pc on US beef), on top of the US plant registration issues.”

“However we know that the US and China are talking, and these current trade conditions could change at any time. That’s why buyers are still somewhat cautious presently,” Mr Cox said.

From MLA’s perspective, there was an opportunity during current trading conditions, at least, to further entrench Australia’s position as a trusted trading partner in beef – and especially at the higher-quality chilled end. Australia was in fact the first exporter to gain access to China for chilled cuts (prior to that, all imports had to be frozen) but since then the chilled segment had become a lot more competitive, he said.

“But we’re in a good space in China. We’ve retained the trust of the trade, we have great commercial and industry-to-industry relationships, and a strong position as a trusted partner. It’s during times of trade disruption like this that can actually present opportunities to further solidify our position.”

“The message we are sending to the Chinese imported meat trade is that we are in the game; we’re passionate  and dedicated exporters; and are focussed on delivering quality product to market.”

Trade displays tell story

Activity around each country’s beef trade displays at SIAL this morning told a contrasting story.

For reasons described above, the US Meat Export Federation’s SIAL site was noticeably quiet (see image above). Brazil and Australia were the opposite, with a steady flow of inquiries and customers this morning.

Both Brazil and Argentina had a large presence and a lot of personnel at SIAL – not surprising when China represents more than half of Brazil’s entire export volume.

Beef cutting demonstration on MLA site at SIAL this morning

Brisk trading

One Australian trader attending SIAL this morning said business and dialogue appeared to be ‘relatively brisk’, both with existing and prospective new customers.

“There’s still US beef evident in the market,” he said, having looked around Shanghai retail in recent days. “However that’s remaining beef held in cold storage, and it will be washed through the system quickly. Stocks in China are now very low, and that lag will inevitably be seen in trading for the third and fourth quarter,” he said.

“The run-down in Chinese inventory is partly due to other markets out-bidding Chinese customers, but that has to change, at some point. We had a breakfast meeting with a large Chinese manufacturing customer this morning, and their main objective this year is not to grow the business, but simply to maintain and secure supply.”

While the outlook in China for Australian beef was overwhelmingly positive, China is now on the cusp of its (northern hemisphere) summer period, when demand inevitably declines.

“Customers are looking at different strategies: Do they go short now, and look to strike another deal later in summer, or try to lock-in supply now?”

“But the key takeaway from discussions held so far is that China has been churning through its large beef inventory, and is now having to make decisions.”

Some Chinese customers at SIAL were already aware of the risk of the growth in Australian beef exports this year triggering China’s Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) some time between July and September. Last year the tariff triggered later, in October, adding an extra 12pc tariff on Australian beef for the erst of the year.

China’s overall red and white meat imports (plus offal) in April reached a colossal 513,000t, down 6.4pc month-on-month according to preliminary figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. Year-on-year, imports were 5.8pc lower.

The decline reflected a mix of challenges, including the ongoing cost-of-living crisis which has weighed on Chinese meat consumption, while a boost in domestic production during the first quarter, fueled by a recovery in pig farming and higher beef and poultry output, has lessened reliance on imports.