MOST of Elders senior southern livestock managers are either on holidays or have been on holidays recently which tells you about all you need to know about activity down south.

Numbers offered across southern saleyards continue to shrink as most southern livestock operators have pared-back herds to nucleus female breeding stock, having turned off stock earlier or sent them away.

Numbers at Mortlake have halved, which is indicative of the general pattern all the way through South Australia, Victoria and the Riverina.

Down the south-east of SA, cows are making anywhere from 280-360c/kg liveweight, depending on how much weight they have, with heavy steers 420-440c/kg lw and best feeders 480c/kg.

There were a few better-quality heavier weight cattle yarded at Wagga this morning, which was reflected in a firm to dearer market which was pretty much the same as down in SA. Heavy cows made to 360c/kg lw, medium cows 285-325c/kg and light cows 230-290c. Feeders 440-480c/kg lw with backgrounding and restocker steers 320-500c.

Queensland action

But the main action is in Queensland. Frosts are starting to knock the feed around a bit and some recent patchy rain won’t help either, which is seeing cattle continue to be offered.

Expecting a bigger sale of 9000 head at Roma tomorrow up from 6000 in recent weeks and likewise Dalby expecting a lift on the 4000 head offered recently. Roma will include an expected 1700 cows tomorrow.

Southern processors remain active in QLD markets, which is keeping northern processors honest, but direct-to-works quotes in QLD are at a 50c/kg discount to southern works, which is around the transport cost to truck them south.

One transport operator that does a lot of work for Elders commented that his work has gone from 80pc moving store cattle from the south to northern restockers, to now being 80pc trucking heavier cattle from the north to south for processing.

Southern store cattle bought by northern operators early in the year are doing well on oats, but won’t be ready until late August, so most of the heavy cattle are coming out of Queensland, with an order for 750kg plus bullocks to bring cattle from Charters Towers to SA an indication of how keen southerners are to own heavy cattle.

Best cows in Qld are around 320c/kg lw for the heavy ones, bullocks are making 340c/kg lw.

Feeder premiums

Feeder markets are grinding higher with a $1/kg lw premium for black cattle about the widest premium witnessed by our agents in northern NSW, and 10c/kg premium for HGP free.

Feedlots are keen to take heifers that have been scanned not in calf, otherwise they cop a big discount of 20-30c/kg liveweight. The Downs feeder market is quoted 380-390c/kg lw with heifers 40-60c/kg discount.

There are opportunities starting to open on lighter store cattle not suitable for feedlots with northern restockers again eyeing an opportunity to put some of these away on oats for later, given the strength in the feeder and slaughter markets and the promising outlook.

CQ weaner sales started this week with 5000 today at Gracemere and 7000 at Emerald which will test the market for little backgrounding type cattle.

Global markets continue to strengthen

Long-term signals in global beef markets keep strengthening. International beef prices continue to rise as US beef production falls, with Steiner reporting US fed cattle slaughter down 7.2 percent for the week – the thirteenth straight week of declines.

Global food commodity prices edged higher in June, supported by higher meat, vegetable oil and dairy prices, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation.

Meat prices rose to a record 126 points, now 6.7pc above June 2024, with all categories rising except poultry. Beef set a new peak, reflecting tighter supplies from Brazil and strong demand from the US. Poultry prices continued to fall due to abundant Brazilian supplies.

Higher international beef prices should support further rises in the price of Australian cattle, particularly if supplies tighten (if southern season improves). Heavy turnoff from QLD is continuing to be the main factor suppressing local cattle values.

The difference between our cow prices and the price the manufacturing beef is commanding overseas is over double the long-term average.

As Queensland cow slaughter moderates seasonally the next few months and local processing competition for cows strengthens, we should see rises in cow values the next few months.

Richard Koch, Elders

Author Richard Koch is Elders’ business intelligence analyst. He discusses local market conditions and trends with senior Elders managers from across Australia each Monday morning.