GOOD rain through Central and Southern NSW, with more in the forecast, has lifted southern markets as widespread forced liquidation eases for now.

The rain has fallen at ‘two minutes to midnight’ for most southern producers and will germinate dry sown winter crops and give struggling forage crops a bit of a kick along before it gets too cold.

While not a panacea, the rain will offer markets a reprieve from large numbers that have beset yards for the past couple of months.

Good heavy cows were in demand at Wagga this morning selling to 320c/kg liveweight, with yardings back to 4500 head, including 1000 cows – about half the levels recorded in early to mid-May.

Southern processors who had been trucking cows down the centre from the Northern Territory were on the hunt for supply as heavy rain forecast for the top-end threatens to disrupt supply. Agents report that bookings were available in some southern works about a week ahead, illustrating the contrast in supply with processors in Queensland.

This chart shows cow saleyard prices in QLD and Victoria. Source: MLA

Queensland

In Queensland, works are struggling to get through abundant supplies of slaughter stock and are booked out up to two months ahead.

The availability of attractively priced well-bred southern restocker cattle is encouraging some Qld producers to upgrade their breeding herds, offloading poorer quality or older stock and replacing them with better or younger lines from the south.

Direct to work quotes for cows in Qld were back to 520c/kg carcase weight, creating the incentive for southern meat buyers to get their cars serviced to head north. They were reportedly active in QLD yards last week but very selective on what they took home – partly due to greater availability in the south.

The arrival of southern processor competition should help stem falls in slaughter cattle values across QLD, which have shed 20-30c/kg in recent weeks under weight of numbers.

Like trends in fat cattle markets, flatback or northern feeder cattle have been falling while southern or Angus feeder cattle have been firming, reflecting the difference in availability.

After being on par at the end of last year, Angus feeder premiums have moved out to $1/kg in some regions of eastern Australia, with Angus feeder prices moving higher to 460c/kg, in contrast to flatback feeders which have fallen to 360c/kg.

NSW

Our southern agents have been active on light well-bred cattle, buying out of the western district of Victoria and moving them to regions like St George and Blackhall in QLD. This morning light heifers were the big mover at Wagga saleyards gaining around 60c/kg to sell to $3.85c/kg.

The price correction on these better-quality light steers and heifers might force a rethink with some QLD producers now considering agistment rather than punting on cattle.

South Australia, Victoria

South Australia and Victoria continue to look towards the sky for a season break but numbers are starting to taper off with estimates that up to 20-30pc of cattle have been moved out of these states since the end of 2024.

Northern buying has allowed prices to hold up much better than they would have otherwise done, given the exceptionally dry conditions.

Western Australia

In WA, markets have backed off compared to last week with grazier demand easing. Feeder and restocker cattle 280-380kg fell around 10c/kg lw to 380c/kg for steers and 330c for heifers.

Although there was some rain in WA last week, the weather turned cold with cool nights and the first of the frosts. Hopefully, the good widespread rain forecast for WA this week, and some warmer late autumn weather will allow pastures to get away and encourage graziers back to the market.

Cows at the works in WA have held 550-560c/kg cw but are under pressure at the yards around 245c liveweight, with the arrival of greater number of Kimberley cattle. The same can be said on heavy bulls which have pulled back to 200-220c.

Tasmania

In Tasmania, rain of +25mm added up across a few days over the island with isolated falls up to 40mm will help, with soil temperatures still warm enough to allow for some late autumn growth.

Direct to works prices are steady at 720/kg cw for program yearlings and 600c on the better cows and 470-480c/kg for the better dairy cows.

Store cattle markets have slowed with limited numbers offered last week but we did see a 20-30c/kg lw firmer trend on AuctionsPlus on Friday with heifers selling to 350-360c/kg lw and steers 370-380c with lighter steers pushing towards 400c.

– Richard Koch – Elders business analyst