LOOKING at Australia’s near-record April beef export figures you could be forgiven for thinking that the market for Australian beef and cattle is looking rosy, but there are some worrying signs that we could be heading for some sort of reset.

The beef we exported in April was not subject to the tariff and any beef arriving in the US with a bill of lading before 10 April will not be subject to the tariff. So potentially, most of the beef arriving in the US in May won’t be subject to a tariff and was shipped against contracts written before the tariff announcement.

Beef contracts are generally written 4-6 weeks prior to shipment before the cattle are slaughtered so most of the beef heading to the US is to fulfil contracts written before the 2 April tariff announcement and not subject to tariffs.

Reports are that new business into the US has slowed. This aligns with other anecdotal evidence coming out of the US that shows we are heading for some sort of reset.

USDA Choice Grade beef cutout value

Yesterday, US processing giant Tyson Foods reported lower-than-expected quarterly sales amid weaker demand for beef, with beef experiencing “the most challenging US market conditions Tyson has ever seen,” with demand turning increasingly to less-expensive meats, such as chicken. The trend is reflected in the graph above, plotting USDA Choice grade beef cutout value.

Tyson warned that tariffs could also trigger some sales disruptions but said the impacts would be temporary as trade flows change, and the company does not expect global meat consumption to decline.

US/China trade war

When we did our initial analysis on the impacts on the beef trade, we assessed the impact of the 10pc tariff and concluded that although trade flows may change, Australian cattle and beef prices should be relatively unaffected as exporters here passed on the tariff to US importers.

Supportive beef market fundamentals would allow us to ride out any short-term impacts relatively unscathed.

But since that time there has been a full-scale escalation in the trade war between the US/China. The big worry with the tariffs was always going to be the secondary effects of lower demand and higher prices and while this isn’t bad enough, we now have an almost total shut-down in trade between the world’s largest economies as the US/China trade war escalates.

I just can’t see how this doesn’t at least lead to some ripple effects. Of course, Trump could end this with a stroke of a pen and the sooner the better, but the longer this trade impasse extends, the bigger the effects.

You can almost see US companies running down inventories and inventories building in China, with this masking the long-term issues that are building in the background.

The Port of Los Angeles, a pivotal hub for US trade, has forecast a 35pc decline in cargo throughput in May, primarily due to a halt in Chinese shipments. So, activity is slowing and despite higher cattle and beef prices in the US, all is not well.

Markets ‘blissfully ignorant’

With that in mind, I’m looking at local cattle markets that floated along during the week almost blissfully ignorant of the hurdles ahead.

Queensland

In Queensland, big yardings at Roma and Dalby sold to good competition. Cows made around $3/kg liveweight and bullocks $3.50-3.60/kg (all figures below in liveweight, unless specified). And even the HGP-treated bullocks, they’re making $3.50/kg with feeders up to $3.90/kg with the odd pen of $3.95/kg at Roma.

Domestic trade cattle remain very strong, selling up to $4/kg on your steers and heifers in the $3.50-3.60/kg bracket.

In your weaner steer and heifers, heifers were $3.50-3.60/kg for the top end but as quality falls back, are into the low $3’s/kg. If they are real off types, you get back to $2.80/kg. On weaner steers, probably looking more like $4.30-4.40/kg lw with some up to $4.50/kg lw.

As far as feeders in the paddock go, crossbred $3.80-3.85/kg and Angus $4.40/kg.

NSW

These same trends were mirrored in NSW with Elders agents surprised by the cow numbers that keep running despite the amount of feed in northern areas, resulting in cow values pulling back 20-30c/kg this week.

It just looks as though until we get another widespread rain, the numbers are going to keep coming.

Indicating the lack of supply, Black feeders were about $4.50/kg lw on farm in NSW, with British breed crossbred $4/kg or $4.10/kg if you have an EU accreditation.

Riverina/Victoria

Down across the NSW Riverina and Victoria, Elders is expecting big yardings this week across all saleyards.

So, there is plenty of cattle but the issue we’ve got is cattle or livestock with weight are selling well, but the tail end is getting harder to sell again. Little cattle in the yards have become very viable again.

You can get $6.20 to $6.50/kg carcase weight (cw) in places for a cow, $7.50/kg cw for a grassfed bullock and some of the program cattle you can get $8/kg cw plus, but we are hanging in there for a rain.

South Australia/Central Australia  

These same sentiments were echoed across South Australia, if it’s got weight and it’s got shape, it’s making money. Our SA agents were up at the Alice last week and yarded 2200 head which was a combination of prime cattle and feeders.

The quality was good, and the cattle were showing the season with not too many roughies yarded and consequently they sold to good rates.

The lead run of big Certified Organic steers sold up to $4.38/kg lw which was exciting for these cattle types. Heavy steers were between $3.20-3.56/kg lw for the best of them.

Better heavy cows were $2.40/kg lw to the mid $2.80s/kg lw and young cows with shape and quality were up to $3/kg lw.

Feeders were $3.20-3.50/kg lw for mainly Reds, not too many Blacks in them, mainly good Droughtmaster cross cattle.

The heifer section was made up of heifers with shape and breeding which saw Charolais heifers sell to $2.98/kg lw. With a beautiful line of Poll Hereford heifers in the Elders run from Todd River and Todmorden, these sold from $2.80-2.90/kg lw for the best heifers, while organics at 320kg made $3.10/kg lw.

All in all, good prices considering the freight to get them anywhere. Not a big buying gallery, but those present absolutely wanted to be there and absorb cattle.

Western Australia

Western Australia has been relatively quiet in recent weeks, with yard numbers easing back slightly or still on the decline. Adding to that, overall cattle quality is beginning to taper off as well.

What’s been particularly noteworthy is the weight range of cattle coming through the yards. About 70pc of the yardings is now made up of lighter cattle, typically between 210kg and 320kg.

This shift in weight profile has aligned well with the recent patchy rainfall across the region, which has sparked renewed interest from graziers. As a result, there’s been strong demand for lighter store-type cattle, which has been a welcome boost to the market.

Despite competition from restockers, processor prices remain steady. Cows $5.20 -$5.50/kg cw, steers $5.70-5.80/kg cw, heifers $5.50-5.70/kg cw and bulls $5.00/kg cw.

Feeder steers are currently trading from $3.50 and $4.15/kg lw, while feeder heifers are bringing in around $3.40 to $3.80/kg lw.

On the processing front, works prices are holding between $5.00 and $6.00/kg cw, depending on the size and type of the consignment.

Meanwhile, the annual movement of Kimberley cattle has commenced, with cows starting to flow south. All major processors are currently taking cows, and this supply chain is expected to continue through to September/October.

Richard Koch is Elders’ Business Intelligence Analyst