PRICES for Australian beef in the US market continue to grind higher on a lift in buying interest ahead of the peak buying period around the US Memorial Day holiday, and another step higher in US domestic lean beef values.

However the US beef market continues to ignore worsening US consumer sentiment.

A monthly University of Michigan survey of US consumer sentiment dropped again to 50.8 points in May 2025, down from 52.2 in April and well below market expectations of 53.4.

This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the lowest reading since June 2022, and the second-lowest on record, as mounting inflation expectations and renewed US concerns over tariffs continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.

The expectations gauge (46.5 vs 47.3) worsened to its lowest read ever in the 45 year history of the survey.

The chart below shows University of Michigan’s survey results of US consumer sentiment.

South to North cattle movement

US market considerations continue to take a back seat to the significant movement of cattle out of drought-stricken SA/VIC to northern NSW and western QLD.

On the road on Monday driving through NSW, I passed truck after truck heading south to pick up cattle.

Northern opportunity buyers are stepping into the market for light well-bred cattle and paying $3-3.10/kg liveweight for heifers and about $1/kg more for the steers across southern markets.

These cattle are coming from Victoria’s western district and south-east SA and represent future supplies of feeder cattle from these areas.

Buyers can probably pick them up 30-40c/kg lw cheaper in the yards, but they aren’t the same quality of even cattle, the better money is for single b-double loads of proper well-bred cattle.

Queensland

Despite fielding 5-6 calls a day from prospective agistment customers, some producers from areas like Cunnamulla in western QLD are preferring to take a punt and buy light cattle rather than offer agistment.

With the commencement of the thick part of the Queensland slaughter cattle turnoff season, QLD slaughter markets have quickly come under pressure.

Last week we spoke about a Vietnam boat order executed out of Townsville at $3.40/kg lw, the new boat order was at $2.90-2.95/kg and was quickly filled to give you an idea of how much this market has come back.

Cows across northern QLD similarly affected, back 20c/kg to $2.40-2.45/kg lw northern yards and about 20c/kg more in the south. Bullocks have come back to around $3.10-3.20c/kg in the southern yards if you can get a booking.

Live export

There has been a bit of a squeeze on Brahman cattle out of Darwin with live export quote back to $3.20c/kg lw from $3.45-3.50c/kg lw last week. But southern works are not interested in Brahman cattle at all.

Southern NSW

Back to southern markets and it’s all about forced turnoff with Wagga and Mortlake saleyard having numbers capped this week, but Mortlake will still have 2000-2500 cows with plenty of cattle being offered at store sales at Bairnsdale, Yea and Wodonga.

WA

Across in WA they are looking for rain too, with some in the forecast for this week, hopefully to keep the season going for a bit longer. Slaughter cattle markets are holding but there is some better interest on feeders and weaners t with producers from the Great Southern actively looking for cattle that they can put away for later in the year. Lotfeeders have come in on the heavier stock while grass fatteners are active on the lighter cattle.

Heavy steers above 380kg averaging $3.67/kg lw, 280-380kg to $3.91/kg lw while the biggest jump is on light weaner steers under 280 kilos, jumped to average $4.15/kg lw. Heifers doing the same above 380kg, $3.60/kg, medium heifers 280-380kg averaging 360c/kg and light heifers averaging 280kg $3.30/kg, so that market is up 30c in the past few weeks.

A live exporter has been active in WA on the dairy heifers paying $850/head which should see them get plenty of offers.

Tasmania

In Tassie, a couple of frosts last week has taken the wind out of the restocker market with rates back 20-30c/kg on steers and heifers. So, the general message is that slaughter cattle with weight and shape continue to hold on reasonably well if producers have organised a booking.

Outside of this, cattle in the yards are copping a discount with processors having plenty of cattle to choose from. The QLD live export and slaughter market has taken a fair step backwards under the weight of numbers.

Northern restockers are putting a floor in the market for well-bred lighter cattle being turned off across the south, however, they are selective on quality and anything not up to the mark is copping discounts. A rain would turn this market around and lead to a wide discrepancy in markets between north and south, until that time both markets will remain under pressure.

– Richard Koch, Elders analyst