The majority of Australian beef producers have confirmed that they do not intend to adjust their herd sizes from those indicated in Meat & Livestock Australia’s Beef Producers Intentions Survey conducted back in April this year.
The latest Beef Producer Intentions Pulse Survey, conducted last month, has shown that 82 percent of producers indicated their intention remained to increase, keep the same, or reduce their beef cattle herd.
Of the 18pc who reported their intentions have changed since the previous April survey:
- 3pc now intend to increase their beef cattle herd
- 8pc now intend to keep their beef cattle herd size the same
- 7pc now intend to reduce their herd.
Producers who had participated in the April survey were invited to complete the July 2024 pulse survey, which sought feedback from 1421 grassfed beef cattle producers.
MLA market information analyst Emily Tan said the aim of the July survey was to provide updated estimates on those provided back in the April 2024 survey.
“The July survey was designed to confirm producer intentions, planned autumn calf drop and forecasted sales provided in April,” Ms Tan said.
“As 82pc of producers indicated no changes to their intentions from April, we can say that producers are keeping a steady ship at this time.”
The pulse survey also wanted to take an estimate of autumn calf drop for producers who indicated they join females to deliver calves in autumn.
Most producers who target autumn-calving reported a change to their forecast autumn calf drop, the results showed. Of these, 36pc delivered fewer calves than previously forecast in April while 37pc delivered more calves than expected; and the remaining 27pc reported their calf drop matched their earlier forecast.
When taking account of the sizes reported, the analysis indicated that the 2024 autumn calf drop was closer to 2.75 million than the planned 2.58 million, which represented a 6pc uplift, Ms Tan said.
Cattle sales trend
The pulse survey also gauged how cattle sales performed according to expectations demonstrated in the main April survey.
Almost half of producers reported they sold fewer cattle than previously forecast in April. The survey reported:
- 46pc sold fewer cattle in the first half of 2024 than forecast
- 21pc sold more cattle than expected
- 33pc reported they met their forecast cattle sales.
“For those who sold fewer cattle than anticipated, the decision ultimately boiled down to two main reasons,” Ms Tan said.
“Forty six percent said that prices were not strong enough to justify selling, and 28pc decided to retain their cattle in the anticipation that forecasted prices were to be stronger.”
When then taking account of the number of cattle sales reported, the analysis indicates that the first half of 2024 sales were closer to 3.6 million than the forecasted 4.58 million.
The Beef Producer Intentions Survey was designed by MLA to support the industry with reliable data and is used by MLA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It is one of the inputs into the MLA beef industry forecasting models.
To view the full survey results visit: Beef Producers Intentions Pulse Survey July 2024