A monthly column written for Beef Central by US beef and cattle market commentator Steve Kay, publisher of US Cattle Buyers’ Weekly
THE humble chicken has been a mainstay of people’s diets around the world for a long time. That’s because chicken meat is nutritious, affordable and easy to grow – and unlike beef and pork, has few if any religious barriers against it.
Global chicken production/consumption has edged up every year for decades because of this.
Annual production from 2015 through 2024 averaged 97.33 million tonnes, while the 2024-25 total was 103.72mt.
The top five consuming countries are China, the US, Brazil, Russia and Mexico. Americans in 2025 on average consumed 46.8kg of chicken meat and are forecast to increase this to 47kg this year.
That’s nearly twice as much as Americans will consume in beef (26.6kg) and just over twice as much in pork (22.2kg).
It thus seems a certainty that chicken consumption globally this year will increase again. That is why a report from Rabobank in mid-December said poultry and seafood are expected to be the shining stars in the coming (2026) year, as they will lead growth, while pork and beef production will contract.
Entering 2026, the global animal protein industry is set to experience a slowdown in production growth, said its RaboResearch unit.
The decline is driven by cyclical factors, like shifts in North American and Brazilian cattle markets, as well as by structural factors, such as China’s efforts to rebalance its pork market, said RaboResearch.
This will mark the first reduction in global terrestrial species output in six years. Challenges like disease outbreaks, trade disruptions and sustainability pressures continue to plague the industry, calling for strategic adaptation and technological integration, it said.
In North America. pork production growth will be constrained by disease and limited sow herd expansion, the report said. Broiler (meat chicken) production will grow due to lower feed costs, while beef production will fall as the US cow herd transitions from liquidation to rebuilding.
In Brazil, beef, pork, and chicken exports are heading toward a new record, with lower feed prices boosting domestic competitiveness, said RaboResearch.
Global contraction in beef production
The global beef industry in 2026 is expected to see the contraction in production continue, with an estimated drop of 3.1pc from 2025. Beef production in key producing and consuming regions is expected to contract by 0.8pc in 2025 compared to 2024 volumes, resulting in the first global beef contraction in five years Rabobank said in its latest global beef quarterly report.
New Zealand is expected to experience the largest percentage drop in production, down 4.7pc (34,000t), while the US, with its larger production base, is expected to see the largest drop in volume, falling almost 500,000t (down 4pc). Canada and the EU27+UK are also expected to see a contraction of 3.9pc and 3pc, respectively (50,000t and 225,000t).
Northern Hemisphere cattle prices have remained elevated in comparison to Southern Hemisphere prices, Rabobank’s report said. Southern Hemisphere cattle prices all edged higher through last September and October, with the exception of Argentina, as southern cattle supplies were being drawn on to supply Northern Hemisphere markets.
Wins and losses in red and white meat for US giant, Tyson
Chicken was the outstanding performer for US protein giant Tyson Foods in fiscal 2025, and will be the same this year. The segment’s adjusted operating income for the year was US$1.482 billion, versus US$1.015b in 2024.
This was 68pc of Tyson’s total adjusted operating income. Chicken sales in 2025 totaled US $16.837b versus US$16.425b in 2024. Volume was up 2.6pc and the average sales price was down 0.1pc.
In stark contrast, Tyson’s US beef segment in 2025 suffered its worst annual loss in company history and this year might be even worse. For the 52 weeks ended September 27, the segment had an operating loss of US$1.135b, versus a US$381m loss (the previous largest) in 2024.
Its adjusted operating loss was US$426m versus a US$291m loss in 2024. Its operating margin was a negative 5.2pc or a negative 1.9pc on an adjusted basis. Tyson anticipates an adjusted operating loss for beef in 2026 between US $600m and US$400m.
Plant closures
Tyson said its weekly beef processing capacity was 155,000 head in 2025, unchanged from the year before. This capacity however will decline this month when Tyson closes its Lexington, Nebraska plant on January 20 and reduces its Amarillo, Texas plant to a single full capacity shift.
These actions will remove 7700 head of maximum daily slaughter capacity, as the Lexington plant has a capacity of 4800 head per day and the Amarillo plant has a capacity of 5800 head per day. The closures will remove an estimated 5-7pc of US beef processing capacity.
Tyson’s announcement took many by surprise, as most observers believed the four major beef processors would ‘tough it out’ until US cattle supplies began to increase.
But Tyson’s actions seem to indicate that it believes any meaningful increase in cattle numbers won’t occur for several years. Secondly, it appears focused on improving capacity utilisation at its Amarillo and four other plants (Dakota City, Nebraska, Finney Country, Kansas, Joslin, Illinois and Pasco, Washington).
JBS SA delivered similar results to Tyson’s in its first nine months in 2025. Its North America beef unit had adjusted EBITDA of a negative US$424m, while adjusted operating income was a negative US$566m.
Greater supply pressure
US beef processors will be under even more supply pressure this year if cow-calf producers start retaining more heifers to rebuild their herds. USDA forecasts that 2026 beef production will total 11.69 million tonnes, down from 11.8mt in 2025 and 12.26mt in 2024.
President Trump last November vowed to bring down the price of beef for Americans.
However forecasts for this year’s beef production suggest the opposite will occur unless his administration miraculously finds a giant new source of beef from overseas.
But all those in the global beef industry know that is not possible, especially if global production declines 3.1pc as Rabobank forecasts.