Consumer confidence key factor for beef returns in 2023: Rabo

Beef Central, 28/02/2023

TOTAL global beef production is forecast to be steady in the first quarter of 2023, with a 5 percent lift in Australian and 2 percent increase in Brazilian production, almost enough to offset declines in the US, EU, and New Zealand.

According to a new report from Rabobank, 2022 was a year to remember for the global beef industry, with record retail and farmgate prices in many regions due to strong consumer demand and limited supplies.

Brazil also achieved record export volumes and returns thanks to growing Chinese demand.

However, consumer sentiment softened in late 2022, leading to weaker beef prices in early 2023.

The global supply through 2023 is expected to become more limited as US production dips.

Cattle prices across most regions have continued their downward trend, with the notable exception being the US, where more limited supplies are providing price support.

“Consumer sentiment weakened in late 2022, leading to a softening in beef pricing that has flowed through into early 2023,” says Angus Gidley-Baird, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at Rabobank.

“While the supply of beef should remain favorable for prices, consumer confidence will continue to be a key factor in determining beef returns.”

China’s reopening and US supply contraction bring opportunities

China will be a key focal point in 2023, as the country emerges from Covid lockdowns amid a slowing economic environment. The lifting of Covid restrictions is expected to lead to a rebound in household consumption, including a potential increase in beef consumption. Chinese demand for beef will pick up in the second half of the year, boosting global beef prices.

The contraction of US production is another a focal point. “The beef cow inventory has dropped to the lowest point since 1962, and feedyard inventories are showing a decline,” says Gidley-Baird. “This is expected to cause a redistribution of global beef supplies and an overall tightening of the market.”

The Brazilian beef supply is expected to be even higher this year, with China remaining Brazil’s the main export destination, though average import prices in 2023 will likely drop due to the increase in volumes. China was a top-three US beef export destination in 2022, but growth in export volumes slowed throughout the year. As US supplies decline and prices increase, the US will face continued headwinds into China over the medium-term.

“The decline in US volumes should support increased trade from Australia,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

“Australia’s volumes will likely lift as prices ease, further supported by the potential increase in demand for chilled products with the growth in China’s retail beef sales. Meanwhile, an increase in retail sales via e-commerce and growth in the prepared dish market will provide opportunities for New Zealand exporters to capture more value.”

Source: Rabobank


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