The chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced over the past fortnight, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Yesterday’s fortnightly ENSO statement indicates that the tropical Pacific has continued its retreat from El Niño thresholds for the second consecutive fortnight, or in other words, ocean temperatures have cooled over that time.
The thresholds currently stand within the neutral range between an El Niño and La Niña.
Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels since late July.
“Given the rate of ocean cooling, and the continued neutral conditions in the atmosphere, the chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced further over the past fortnight,” the bureau said.
“However, some risk still remains while the trade winds in the western Pacific continue to be weaker than normal.
“Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012.”
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to return to neutral values during the latter half of the southern spring, according to outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model.
The IOD index has been consistently above +0.4 °C since mid-July, indicative of a positive IOD event.
A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.
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