Indian buffalo meat exports to Indonesia could be impacted in coming weeks, after a newly elected Hindu Government began cracking down on slaughterhouses in India’s biggest buffalo meat processing state.

It is still unclear how long the clamp down will last and whether it will have a sustained impact on Indian buffalo meat exports, but media reports suggest the move is seriously disrupting illegal and legal slaughter house operations this week.

After being sworn in as the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh last week, hardline Hindu candidate Yogi Adityanath has followed through with an election pledge to crack down on illegal and mechanised slaughterhouses in the State.

Uttar Predesh has 44 of the 72 government-approved abattoirs in India, and accounts for nearly 50 percent of India’s total meat exports, according to the All India Meat and Livestock Exporters’ Association.

Rough estimates suggest that in addition to the legal slaughterhouses, there are about 140 illegal slaughterhouses and over 50,000 illegal meat shops operating in Uttar Predesh according to the Hindustan Times.

Indian media is reporting that 26 of the State’s 44 licensed slaughterhouses have now been “temporarily shut” for not following basic rules and guidelines laid down for operation, transportation and processing of slaughtered animals.

Some news organisations such as Bloomberg are reporting that buffalo meat exports may drop to less than half current levels if the bans continue.

Other reports this week are quoting Indian Government officials saying the bans are only directed at illegal abattoirs.

However, many legal operations are currently being disrupted, Indian’s meat and livestock exporters association is reporting.

“There is so much uncertainty now that many exporters have stopped taking further orders and are struggling to meet their current contracts,” DB Sabharwall, secretary-general of the All India Meat and Livestock Exporters’ Association, said in comments reported by the Business Standard.

He noted that India is the world’s largest exporter of meat with buffalo meat export valued at $4 billion, and approximately half of that value is generated from Uttar Pradesh.

“The state government does not realise the harm they are doing to the economy,” said Sabharwall.

What is driving the crackdown?

Hindu activists say the Muslim dominated Indian meat industry conceals the illegal slaughter of cows, which are sacred to Hindus.

“The state’s new leaders promise more meat factories will be shut in the coming days, and they say the blow to the economy is less important than the principle of protecting the cow,” the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

In a country of almost one billion Hindus who revere cows, India’s expanding meat industry has at times been a flash point. Bloomberg offers the following recent examples:

In 2015, a Muslim man was dragged from his home at night and beaten to death with bricks and rods in front of his children in Uttar Pradesh after rumours he had slaughtered a cow.

Maharashtra, the second-most populous state and home to the nation’s biggest city, Mumbai, banned the possession and sale of beef the same year before relaxing some restrictions in 2016.

India’s meat industry employs about 22 million people, including more than 15 million people in Uttar Pradesh, many of whom are Muslims.

Others question if the Government will continue to take such a strong stance against an industry that employs so many people and is good for the economy.

“Look at the numbers,” Nadeem Chauhan, a politician with the out-of-power Bahujan Samaj Party told the New York Times.

“Why do you think the central government and the prime minister have not already shut down this business? It’s the biggest cash generator for the government. It brings in foreign currency.”

New chief minister Yogi Adityanath is reportedly running a poll on his website asking whether the state should have tougher laws on slaughter.

So far, 85% of respondents say ‘yes’.

Buffalo meat exports may drop to less than half current levels if a ban is put in place, Sunil Sud, a partner at Al Noor Exports, told Bloomberg.

“It will be really unfortunate if the Uttar Pradesh government puts a ban on legal licensed abattoirs,” Sud said. “It has taken us almost 20 years to reach world standard in quality by spending on in-house facilities and laboratories.”

Al-Jazeera has reported today that Uttar Pradesh is now running out of meat, as tens of thousands of meat sellers strike and close their shops in protest at the government move.

The crackdown has even hit the carnivores in the state’s zoos, Al-Jazeera is reporting.

Zoos in the State have sent an urgent message to the state government saying the lions aren’t keen on eating goat meat.