THE 2026 international beef trading year has barely started, yet Brazil is already within sight of filling its entire annual tariff-free beef quota into the United States market for the next 12 months.
The latest USDA weekly imported beef report for the period ended 12 January is due out tonight, however as of the previous report effective 5 January, Brazil had already filled 73 percent of its 2026 quota.
Without its own Free Trade Agreement with the US in place, Brazil services the US beef market under the small 65,000 tonne ‘Other Country’ MBN quota, also occupied by other smaller exporters including Japan, Ireland and Lithuania.
Brazil’s exports for the first five days of the new 2026 calendar year totalled 47,371t.
In contrast, Australia’s bilateral FTA quota into the US this year is 378, 214t, of which we had filled only 1600t (less than 1pc) by 5 January.
It means that some time in the next week or so, US importers (or Brazilian exporters) will be burdened by by an additional 26.5pc out-of-quota tariff, for US trade for the remainder of the year.
Last year, Brazil filled its 2025 quota by 17 January, but the trigger-point could be reached even sooner this year. In 2024 the trigger was hit in March, and the year before that, in May.
Carry-over Brazilian beef held in bonded cold storage for release in the new calendar year may be a factor this year, as exporters and importers seek to escape the impact of the tariff – albeit briefly.
US domestic beef still desperately short
The US remains desperately short of domestic beef in the opening stages of 2026.
Just prior to Christmas break, US meat and livestock markets commentor Derrell Peel from Oklahoma State University said the USDA’s December Cattle on Feed report showed a US feedlot inventory of 11.727 million head, down 2.1pc year-over-year, and the smallest December feedlot inventory since 2017.
Feedlot inventories declined year-over-year for 13 consecutive months, Dr Peel said, leading to a 12-month moving average total the lowest since October 2018.
The rather slow decline in feedlot inventories masked a sharper drop in feedlot placements and marketings, he said.
Feedlot placements in November were down 11.2pc year-on-year, and decreased 8.6pc in the last six months ended December.
Finished cattle marketings in November were down 11.8pc from a year ago and have decreased 7.9pc in the last six months compared to last year.
As of November, the average of US feedlot placements the past year were at the lowest level since April 2016, and average marketings were the lowest since August 2016, Dr Peel said.
Average feedlot placements and marketings have decreased more dramatically in 2025 as tightening feeder supplies were exacerbated by the lack of Mexican cattle imports, he said.