THE Bureau of Meteorology has defended its long-range forecasting after a predicted hot and dry summer turned into widespread rain and flooding.
From as early as March last year, BOM had been warning that Australia was heading towards an El Nino-influenced dry period – a forecast that was reported extensively by media outlets across the country.
With parts of New South Wales and Queensland already experiencing a dry start to the year, the forecast was followed by large-scale destocking and a subsequent market crash.
Some have told Beef Central the forecast triggered the crash, while others have defended the agency saying it is up to producers to better interpret the forecast. (read the full article here)
Asked about how the dry forecast turned into a wet summer, the bureau said the impacts of El Nino were evident in the traditionally dry spring period.
“August to October was the driest such period on record for Australia, with very warm temperatures. September 2023 was the driest September on record and the second driest month ever on record,” a spokesperson said.
“Impacts from the record low rainfall and above-average temperatures through September and October included extensive fires across northern Australia including large parts of WA, the NT and Qld. Very low to extremely low soil moisture levels prevailed across most of Australia until late spring, when heavy rainfall and persistent humid conditions occurred across much of eastern Australia.”
The spokesperson said BOM issued a long-range outlook for summer in late November, which reflected the likelihood of rain.
“The Bureau’s long-range forecasts for summer, issued on 23 November 2023, indicated neutral to increased likelihood of above average rainfall across much of the continent for December and January, and increased likelihood of below average rainfall for the northern tropics,” the spokesperson said.
“The Bureau specifically advised, via its October 2023 to April 2024 severe weather season outlook, the ever-present possibility of cyclones and to expect a typical summertime risk of severe thunderstorms, and risk of riverine flooding.”
Was messaging the issue?
BOM’s messaging has also come under criticism in the past year, with the dry forecast represented in maps coloured with brown from coast to coast painting a bleak picture. Its maps were put in news articles that used terms like “Super El Nino” – a phrase not used by BOM.
In the comments section on Beef Central’s article last week, many pointed the finger at BOM while others said media outlets had as much to answer for.
Beef Central asked BOM if it was planning to review its messaging, what it thought of the media coverage and whether it took any responsibility for the media coverage, given the extensive airtime it is afforded.
This article will be updated if there is a response.
An example of the brown used in BOM’s forecasts
Unusual activity triggered rain last year
BOM’s spokesperson said last year’s rain in the usually dry El Nino period was driven by some unusual factors.
“The presence of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), combined with very high temperatures in the Tasman Sea, likely contributed to rainfall events in eastern Australia in December and January,” the spokesperson said.
“It is unusual to see a persistently positive SAM during El Niño, as that is more typical during a La Niña phase. The widespread and regular rainfall across southeastern Australia across multiple months is similarly unusual for El Niño.
“No two El Niño and IOD events are the same and their impact on Australia varies. This is why the Bureau doesn’t simply rely on climate drivers but uses a wide range of inputs to create its outlooks, which are updated every fortnight and which provide details about when and where rainfall and temperature are likely to vary from the average.
“This is particularly true of summer months. Now that the northern monsoon has arrived, the influence of both El Niño and a positive IOD is diminished, and the chance of summer rainfall events increases. Around half of the past El Niño events have included heavy rainfall events, particularly across parts of eastern Australia. This occurred in December 2009 and again in August 2015 where the Illawarra received more than 400mm in two days.”
More rain could come this summer
BOM said its summer outlook is indicating a higher than average chance of rainfall large parts of the eastern states.
“The January to March long-range forecast, issued 4 January 2024, indicates an increased chance of above median rainfall for parts of southeast Queensland, eastern NSW and Victoria, and more neutral rainfall chances over the interior and southern parts of the country,” the spokesperson said.
“Warmer days and nights are very likely for almost all of Australia with unusually warm daytime and night-time temperatures are at least two times more likely than usual.
BOM said its outlook favoured drier than average conditions for most of WA, the NT and northern parts of Qld – many of those areas are said to be in for a drenching this week as shown on the map below.
BOM defends accuracy of forecasts
On the accuracy of BOM’s forecasts the spokesperson said: “BOM’s forecast accuracy has consistently ranked in the top 5 in the world.
“The Bureau’s Australian weather model (ACCESS) ranks in the top 4 alongside the European Union, United Kingdom and United States. On a seasonal timescale, the Bureau’s system is recognised as one of the best in the world.
“The Bureau’s high forecast accuracy is made possible by advanced computing power, more and better observations, continually improved models and the ability to run a range of weather and climate simulations or ensemble models to increase accuracy and reliability. The Bureau’s expert scientists draw upon the latest science to produce its forecasts and warnings.
“Weather forecasts carry an inherent uncertainty that, on some occasions, results in forecasts deviating from the actual weather. Long range forecasts do not predict sudden severe weather events. Sudden severe weather events are forecast through our short-term forecasts and communicated through warnings on our website and through the BOM Weather app.”
not sure how anyone who gets it wrong so often can still be in a job?
I live SW of Perth, for a week now BOM has forecast rain today, originally 20-30mm, this dwindled to 1-5mm forecast this afternoon.
There is only 3 hours of Saturday left, and not one drop. I feel for those who cancelled events based on the original forecast, it’s been a lovely sunny day.
Sources and statistics methodologies can be conveniently selected and interpreted, as I strongly suspect is the case with the proudly mentioned data regarding the very high BOM’s level of accuracy on the international weather reporting scene. The reality is that the BOM consistently fails to provide reliable reports, to such a spectacular extent that it should attract a serious investigation on both the science on which meteorology is supposed to be founded and the funds that are provided by us to this institution.
I have a Café which is affected by weather…and forecasts. It’s a popular motorcycle stop at Mount Glorious.
The BOM says things like “Showers expected morning and afternoon” then nobody goes out on their motorbike and we can’t pay the staff wages. The sun shines, but people made other plans already, based on the erroneous forecast.
The BOM is a total waste of public money, better people look out the window and assess the weather than plan according to the forecast! Better they don’t forecast at all! How about the farmers selling off their cattle due to the BOM fictitious drought?
I am an ex Airline Pilot, and we have to carry fuel according to weather forecast requirements. I couldn’t count the number of times I arrived in Brisbane to find an unforecast thunderstorm at the airfield, or carried the alternate fuel at cost to find no sign of any bad weather on arrival.
The Bureau of Meteorology is as BAD as the sensationalising “News” on the media.
Ok I get that it is more difficult to forecast the weather than put a man on the moon, so perhaps the BOM would be better off not to bother issuing forecasts unless there’s something obvious like a tropical cyclone which even Joe Bloggs can see on the charts.
Rain bomb a few days ago in BNE…unforecast 😩
good old bom still wiping the egg off there faces the predicted long hot dry spring summer didn’t eventuate they claim these elnino events take months to manifest after the 2019-2020 bushfires with in two weeks we had a flood followed by 14 more floods in 12 months and there forecasts they claim to be acurate 85 percentof the time well look at there forcasts and you will see where 85 percent accuracy comes from notice how many forcast have the word chance of this and the chance of that chance is a prediction you cant be wrong once chance is thrown into the mix.
One sells for 2 reasons- want money or don’t have enough grass. Today. Not what might happen next week according to BOM or your local fortune teller.
Suggest spend more time looking at grass and less looking at smartphone.
Even to day they have said rain But when i looked at the hourly icons No rain present They say check the weather to plan Can’t even get 5 days close yet they press on with warming yet winter in Canada is at neg 54 c BOM needs a BOM as in a wakeup not explosion
Their AI system even printed a rain event for us at a 50%
chance of at least minus .2mil
and the believe they are credaible Give me a break
If the dry had happened and yet the BOM had hedged it’s bets and not gifted the big media outlets their sensational headlines then a different lot of people would be flaying them because they “weren’t warned”.
We moved 3000 head some to sale and 2000 onto agistment and oats in June. We hacked into a year younger for cast for age in our breeders. And by September we had arranged road trains of cotton seed for emergency drought feeding of what was left.
And all of that was barely enough to protect the balance of the herds.
We were sitting on an all time record rainfall deficit by the end of October.
Then in early November it rained; and rained, and rained.
Yet neighbours just 10km away have had to send their breeders to our country on agistment because it didn’t rain there.
Weather forecasting shouldn’t be massaged into news headlines.
It is complex and variable. And we have the choice to ignore what it suggests.
O no escuses you got lit wrong!!!!
caused a lot of grief in the rural industry.
Don’t trust a word you say
Not long ago the bom was reported as predicting fewer cyclones than normal, this year.
Now they say they’re likely. Can’t have it both ways.
To their credit, they did wait an extended time before declaring El Niño. They ignored advice to the contrary.
Many of us were told in early 2023, that all the El Niño talk was a hoax….
No matter what BOM says, their long range forecast severely impacted my re-stocker weaner calf prices leading into the most difficult (financially) 6 months I have ever experienced. This prediction for the NR of NSW was galvanised by a dry autumn which, in the minds of buyers, confirmed for both producer and buyers, that we were headed into another drought based on BoM forecasting!
Not only did I have to contend with crashed prices bought on by BoMs long range forecast but as it turned out, my cow calving was anything from 6-12 months late! I now know this delayed calving was also being experienced by other weaner calf producers here on NR of NSW presumably because of the long wet experienced in 2022.
BoM needs to know that their long range forecasts can severely affect small producers like me and lead to catastrophic implications, as it did for me from July-Dec 2023!
The unpalatable fact that farming businesses need to confront, exposed as they are not only to the vicissitudes of commodity markets but also something as variable as the weather, is that one producer’s loss is another’s gain, something that seems to have been overlooked in this debate.
Restockers purchasing cattle in early to mid-spring 2023 did so at very competitive rates and have subsequently benefited from the improved season and more positive market outlook. Bear in mind that restockers were paying over $2000 per head for weaner cattle in autumn 2022 – hardly a sustainable trend.
Similarly, in the stud stock realm, breeders were able to secure high quality genetics at bull sales in 2023 for prices at a considerable discount to the prior year, allowing them to simultaneously lower their cost of production and improve the genetic profile of their cow herds.
There are opportunities for the BOM to improve how they communicate their long-range forecasts and perhaps consider emphasising their probability-based nature, but to suggest that BOM forecasts were the sole cause of cattle market corrections is quite frankly a scurrilous assertion. We should otherwise expect to see the market for both store and finished cattle to be much higher than it currently is in light of the prevailing favourable seasonal conditions.
Far too much post hoc rationalisation and squirming.
We had months of 2023 brown seasinal fotecast (1 and 3 months lead) maps. With a media pile-on about the strength of this El Niño event. Super El Niño. BoM may have been late in declaring El Niño but that taxonomic declaration sits aside from the forecasts. The forecast maps are still what they are. Wrong. The companion skill maps ate not often in user focus and what exactly do they mean anyway.
ACCESS is supposed to be a physics based model which should pick up on extra warm waters around Australia, SAM and Indian Ocean Dipole. The model is supposed to respond to what is there. So what is this talk about unusual circumstances
We had cyclone Jasper about to make landfall and the north Qld forecast mao was still brown. Its inept.
Given the variability in all El Niño and La Niña events what hope the future. It will always be unusual.
As for BoM forecasts being accurate and world class. On what lead time, on what variables and what test criteria. Need more than a glib comment. And how good are the international models themselves. Punters are helping themselves.
Sorry the rationalisation may be coirect but the apology unconvincing and its not just 2023 that has been an issue
What is missing is an honest discussion of what went wrong and can it be fixed. And instead of simplistic seasonal forecasts a more nuanced product including risks of being wrong and mitigating factors.
The media itself needs to get off the eternal climate change mantra and convey information precisely without gingering up the message.
We can only get to an improvement with some fessing up, truth telling and a list of things to fix.
As for agricultural science after 30 years of seasonal forecast technology we don’t formally know the downside risks of these seasonal forecasts being wrong or “minority odds”. Industry needs to demand better. That’s testing forecasts with production systems. Making real management decisions.
BOM’s forecasts are seriously bad, they have let us down big time and cost us a lot. BOM staff should be paid on performance and if no perform then no pay. How they can have the gall to say they’re doing a good job beggars belief.
Spot on