Analysts Episode 3 have this week published a “Comparing the market” series recording Australian versus global prices on a range of commodities, including beef, lamb, canola, wheat, barley and diesel. Click here to access the full series.

A look at global cattle prices, monthly average prices for a heavy steer equivalent converted into A$  per kilogram on a live weight basis, for selected northern hemisphere and South American markets versus Australian prices demonstrates an interesting trend since 2019, Ep3’s Matt Dalgleish says.

“During the recent herd rebuild phase in Australia (late 2021-22) our heavy steer prices (orange line in the graph) were running at a premium to the US and on parity with the UK,” Mr Dalgleish said.

However a spooked cattle market in 2023 caused by a pessimistic BOM three-month forecast, and the earlier alarm around the perceived risk of Australia getting Lumpy Skin Disease saw Australian prices revert back toward South American price levels.

Measured in A$, currently the monthly average price basis (as at the end of March 2025) have Australian heavy steer pricing sitting at 370c/kg lwt, versus Brazil on 298c/kg, Argentina on 398c and the US/UK surging past 700c/kg, Ep3 calculated.

On a 500kg steer this places the per head pricing at between $1490 and $1990 in South America, $1850 in Australia and between $3700 and $4000 per head in the northern hemisphere markets.

However Australian cattle prices versus those in the US have to be taken in the context of a US beef herd now approaching 70-year lows due to earlier drought, forcing US cattle prices to all-time record highs.

In terms of percentage price spread trends, current price discounts to the northern hemisphere sits at about a 50pc discount, widening slightly from around a 40pc discount in the later months of 2024.

Australian steers have moved from a premium of 20pc to a discount of about 10pc to Argentina over the last six months. Meanwhile the premium to Brazil has dropped from about 60pc to 20pc from September 2024 to March 2025.

Analysing the comparison of agricultural commodity pricing between countries that Australia supplies and those it competes with is vital for understanding market dynamics, competitiveness, and trade opportunities, Ep3 says.

Understanding these price relationships enables Australian producers, traders, and policymakers to make informed decisions, whether it’s adjusting marketing strategies, investing in supply chain efficiencies, or lobbying for fair trade terms.

It also allows early detection of trends, such as price convergence or divergence, that could signal shifting global demand, geopolitical risks, or emerging opportunities. In short, pricing comparisons are essential for strategic positioning by stakeholders in the agricultural supply chain in Australia.