THE Eastern Young Cattle Indicator reached another important milestone this week, passing above 550c/kg dressed weight equivalent as the dramatic rain-driven turnaround in livestock prices continues.
The EYCI closed yesterday at 562.8c, its highest level since late July when the wheels really started to fall off the cattle market. The indicator has jumped 78c/kg over the past week, and almost 200c/kg over the past month, but still remains 310c/kg behind where it sat this time last year.
As seen on this BOM monthly rainfall map for November, consistent and widespread November rainfall totalling 50-150mm in large parts of Qld, NSW, Victoria and the NT has dramatically improved producer confidence, pushing up prices for all cattle indicators.
The NLRS feeder steer indicator lifted 43c across the week to reach 287c/kg liveweight yesterday, its highest level since early August.
Saleyard yardings this week lifted by 4651 head to 41,637, largely off the back of higher yardings in Queensland. Charters Towers, which did not run last week, offered 2517 head, while yardings at Dalby lifted by 2280 to 4003 head.
The performance of each state is closely linked to the amount of rainfall over the past two months, MLA said in commentary. Prices generally lifted by more in the north, though they did lift across the east coast.
In Victoria, the indicator lifted by 12¢ to 229¢/kg, as price lifts in Wodonga were matched by easing in Mortlake and Shepparton.
In Queensland, the indicator rose 60c to 327c/kg, the highest the indicator has reached since early July.
In general, prices are lifting further for restocker cattle than finished cattle, a reversal of the trend observed throughout the year. Restocker yearling heifers have risen 43¢ to 277¢/kg this week, while processor cows have risen by a relatively smaller 19¢ to 206¢/kg.
New South Wales
Over the past several weeks, NSW has received a considerable amount of rain – generally between 50–150mm, though some areas have received more. This has resulted in cattle prices rising, as shown by the feeder steer indicator lifting 91¢ over the past month to 278¢/kg live weight. Sales in New England and the Central West have typically outperformed sales in the Riverina, as the north of the state was drier prior to the rain and has received slightly more rain over the past fortnight.
Queensland
Cattle prices in Queensland have lifted the most over the past month, with the feeder steer rising 115¢ to 329¢/kg. In October, Queensland rainfall was well below average across most of the state and was drier than the rest of the east coast. As such, the rain had the strongest positive effect on market confidence, with both prices and yardings lifting.
Victoria
Unlike NSW and Queensland, Victoria had a relatively wet winter, which did not have as large an effect as further north. With that said, prices still did lift, both due to increased confidence from local producers and from rising buyer demand interstate. The feeder steer indicator lifted by 26¢ to 229¢/kg lwt over the last month, the highest level since September.
Western Australia
The impact of rain is clear when considering feeder prices in Western Australia. WA received little rainfall over the last fortnight and is now drier than the east coast. This has likely led to a 6¢ fall in the feeder steer to 192¢/kg over the past month. This bucks the 2023 trend of WA prices remaining at a slight premium to east coast prices.
Meanwhile, the producers share of the retail spend on beef as measured by farm gate return has slipped to well below 30% for November. Farm gate return for a heavy steer as quoted by NLIS (adjusted to take account of cost of getting the steer to market and marketing him) has fallen below $2.00 per kg whereas retail prices have hardly moved this year. The big 2 are still asking (per kg prices) $30 for T Bone, $40 for porterhouse and scotch fillet, $28 for rump $52 for eye fillet etc. Meanwhile some independents including Aldi are dropping their prices to be at least $10 per kg below the big 2. This week Aldi had Scotch Fillet at $26.99, Porterhouse at $21.99, and Rump at $17.99, all over $10 per kg lower than the big 2.
To be fair, Andrew, Aldi’s beef spec is nothing like the quality parameters used by either Coles or Woolworths. It’s important to compare apples with applies. Editor
Actually Aldi meat is pretty good for the dollar… yes I do have a local butch however I get a better bang for buck at Aldi