Markets

Reader comp: Where will the EYCI be in 12 months time?

Beef Central, 14/01/2016

Will the strong performance of cattle prices continue in 2016?

It is a question we will be tackling with in-depth analysis in coming days on Beef Central, but we also want to know what our readers think.

In 2015 the benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator shot up by 211c from 376c in January to 587c by the closing sale in December.

We want our readers to have a stab at where they think it will close at the end of 2016.

If your answer is the closest you’ll win a handy prize – not to mention the bragging rights that go with having predicted the EYCI 12 months out!

Tell us what you think in the comment box below, on our Facebook page or by emailing your guess with your name to admin@beefcentral.com – and while not necessary, reasons for given answers are welcome as well.

If you’re looking for some guidance, you could do worse than base your answer on how you think the market will perform in the next few weeks for the remainder of January.

A recent analysis conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia’s market intelligence unit highlighted a striking correlation between the performance of the EYCI for the month of January and its performance of the EYCI for the remainder of that year.

The old adage ‘as January goes, so does the year’ appears to apply in this instance, MLA says.

The analysis (see table below) shows that the year-on-year performance of the EYCI for January (i.e. averaging higher or lower) has been reflected 78% of the time in the annual year-on-year change of the EYCI.

That is, the year-on-year EYCI movement for January has been roughly matched by the year-on-year EYCI movement for the ensuing year on 14 occasions out of the past 18 years (as far back as year-on-year comparisons can be made for the EYCI).

“Interestingly, if there was a positive year-on-year change in the EYCI for January, the likelihood of the annual average being in the same direction actually increased to 90%,” MLA states.

“Furthermore, of the four years when the January direction was different to what the annual average became, three of the January changes were negative, but the year eventually became positive (2003, 2010 and 2014).

“In short, despite the plethora of forces working for and against the Australian cattle market, if history is to repeat itself, we may only need to wait a few weeks to get a strong clue as to how the market will fare in 2016. There will of course be seasonal variance, but by and large, it may well be an indication of whether or not the annual average cattle prices in 2016 will be higher or lower than 2015.”

EYCI analysis

Tell us where you think the EYCI will close in 2016 in the comment box below, on our Facebook page or by emailing your guess with your name to admin@beefcentral.com

 

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Comments

  1. John Russell, 20/01/2016

    EYCI this time next year – $5.35

  2. Brian Gray, 19/01/2016

    Plenty of room for improvement yet.
    This Xmas & this time next year…..$5.85.

  3. David Raff, 19/01/2016

    $5.47

  4. Senator Barry O'Sullivan, 19/01/2016

    642c
    Market still has room to move upwards (subject to weather and restocker demand).

  5. Pete McGil, 19/01/2016

    $5.62
    Everyone wants beef – there are billions of people out there! Will be an interesting ride.

  6. Storm S, 18/01/2016

    $4.00 5.00

  7. Nathan Poore, 15/01/2016

    635

  8. Rod Moore, 14/01/2016

    $ 8.30 This figuredepends on what level of production the existing processors are willing to accept. The High Turnoff Volumes [HTV’s] have gone perhaps until 2023 or later. The Medium Turnoff Volumes [MTV’s] are not currently on the radar. Low Turnoff Volumes [LTV’s] are a reality throughout 2016 and beyond. Qld traditionally has 15.5 mil head avail for transaction year on year – since 1992. LTV’s indicate less than 10.4 mil avail, equals 5.1 mil not born yet- regardless of the split Slaughter to Feed ON then based on 20000 per month throughput equates to 5 processing works not operating at any level until MTV’s are seen as a positive– Over capacity of processing space will be the Buzz word well into early 2020’s.
    $ 8.30 could be well under the rate.
    Currently 340 kg Grass ox before fabrication = $2035 less hide
    ” ” 260 kg Female 8 teeth ” ”’ = $1086 less hide
    What plant can operate at 20000 per month, however what consumer [globally] can afford to consume red meat at the above $ before fabriciations.
    Having commenced in this Industry 50 yrs – November 1965 Never and I repeat Never has the Available Nursery and Breeder Numbers been so depleted. Happy New Year and God Bless Rod Moore

  9. Sandy Maconochie, 14/01/2016

    525

  10. John Bell, 14/01/2016

    $5.00

  11. Scott McDouall, 14/01/2016

    537. Reduction in global consumptions of beef versus competitively priced alternative protein sources. Also increased supply of cheaper beef from the South Americas. Global shift in processor strategies to protect margins over driving volume through plants.

  12. Malcolm Williams, 14/01/2016

    $4.93ckg

  13. matthew arkinstall, 14/01/2016

    675. aussie dollar will weaken further. recent rain in qld will help create cattle shortage. reduction in female kill will help drive slightly higher.

  14. Ross Keane, 14/01/2016

    $5.01 – As it is the EYCI, and it is more relevant to the store market, than the fat market, these useful rains in some areas will keep the Store market strong. I do see the current Prime Market much more overheated.

  15. James O'Shea, 13/01/2016

    575ckg

  16. Paul Jeffery, 13/01/2016

    650.
    Aussie dollar to 60 cents will drive overseas demand

  17. Andrew Mathie, 13/01/2016

    628ckg
    Processors will have to continue to pay realistic prices to compete with restockers & live exporters for a diminishing supply of cattle over the next 12 months.

  18. bill nicholas, 13/01/2016

    $5.50 more positives than negatives

  19. Mark Gillett, 12/01/2016

    $5.80 The biggest threat comes from our external markets. Traditionally we have exported 70%of our production, however production levels will be much lower in 2016 coinciding with receding markets in China and USA. With the north west receiving there first rains restocking will increase placing demands on the availability of some classes of stock for slaughter. Whilst the EYCI indicator will move marginally some classes of stock will rise by comparison.

  20. Greg Gibbons, 12/01/2016

    485
    A reduction in global demand for red meat protein
    Interesting to see higher demand for vegetable protein crops in the past 12 months and into the future – chick peas and mung beans are replacing cereal crops and sorghum hectares.

  21. James Nason, 12/01/2016

    530c

  22. Ricky Chappell, 12/01/2016

    5.05

  23. SAM STAINES, 12/01/2016

    $4.16
    Demand shrinking in front of world trade trends and pork and chicken competition

  24. John Cooper, 12/01/2016

    It is likely a correction to about $4.50 much depending on the export demand.

  25. Greg Steer, 12/01/2016

    $3.91

    Reduced US demand and slowing Chinese growth and domestic competition from chicken on the demand side. Increased international competition with the US supplying more themselves domestically, Brazilian access to China as more plants are approved and US approval by the third quarter and Argentina’s return to the international market now that export controls have been scrapped on the supply side.

  26. Brad Wilesmith, 12/01/2016

    $5:36

  27. John Fry, 12/01/2016

    585c/kg

  28. Dan Thrower, 11/01/2016

    535c/ kg

  29. Terry Nolan, 11/01/2016

    519c

  30. Steve Martin, 11/01/2016

    512c/kg

  31. Newman Hollis, 11/01/2016

    $4.08

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