A 24 percent lift in forecast saleyard prices next financial year is the headline forecast for beef producers in ABARES’s latest annual outlook statement released today.

ABARES predicts robust export prices and strong restocker and processor demand to drive the nominal average saleyard price for cattle to 599 cents per kilogram carcase weight in 2024-25.

The forecast rise follows the recent fall in prices, which ABARES says will average 483c/kg this financial year ending June 30, which is 27 percent lower than the 662c/kg average of 2022-23.

In line with rising prices next financial year, ABARES expects the value of beef, veal and live cattle production to rise by 25 percent to $15.7 billion in 2024–25.

This reflects higher cattle saleyard prices and a small increase in beef production.

Longer term, the official Government commodities forecaster’s crystal ball outlines scenarios that see prices decreasing again and then rising over the next five years to 2028-29, with higher priced scenarios contingent on wetter seasonal conditions driving increased restocker demand and reduced livestock supply in saleyards.

“Over the outlook period, the real average cattle saleyard price is expected to remain below its 10-year average reflecting higher saleyard supply as projected conditions support a larger national cattle herd,” ABARES says.

Over the medium term to 2028–29 real Australian beef export prices are expected to slowly decline as world beef supply – driven by Brazil and the United States – grows by more than world demand. Real export prices are expected to range between 753 and 806 cents per kilogram.

Australian beef and veal production volumes are forecast to rise by 16 percent to 2.3 million tonnes (carcase weight) in 2023–24 reflecting both drier seasonal conditions and a relatively large cattle herd.

The Australian cattle herd is expected to decrease slightly to 25.7 million head in 2023–24 as drier seasonal conditions across Australia increase cattle turn-off and slaughter, particularly for female cattle.

“As a result of the drier seasonal outlook in late 2023, many producers proactively reduced their herd sizes to retain feed availability and minimise potential damage to paddocks from overgrazing.”

Beef and veal production is expected to rise slightly in 2024–25 reflecting a small increase cattle slaughter.

Cattle slaughter is forecast to increase by 4pc to 8.4 million head in 2024–25 as the supply of cattle for slaughter remains high and processing capacity remains elevated.

Live cattle export volumes are forecast to increase by 20pc to 708,000 head in 2023–24, as lower prices increase demand for Australian live feeder/slaughter cattle. In 2024–25, live cattle export volumes are forecast to rise 15pc to 811,000 head.

To view ABARES full beef cattle outlook statement released today click here